Delayed September Jobs Report Expected to Show Continued Weak Growth

Job growth has significantly slowed since the start of 2025.

Gabe Alpert
Nov 18, 2025

Key Takeaways
• Economists forecast the September 2025 employment report will show 50,000 new jobs were added while the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.3%.
• Job growth has slowed significantly since the start of the year.
• Despite the expected weak pace of hiring, odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have declined to less than 50%.

Economists predict that the September jobs report, scheduled to be released Thursday, will show a continued soft job market, with only a slight uptick in hiring after a weak reading in August.

Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to have expanded by 50,000 in September, up from 22,000 in August, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. By contrast, the US economy was adding roughly 100,000 jobs per month at the start of the year.

“It will be further confirmation that the labor market trend we saw during the summer, which was pretty weak, continued into the fall,” says Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. He forecasts the employment report will show the economy added 40,000-50,000 jobs in September. “I would call the job market stagnant, and I think there’s still a lot of credence to the idea that firms are maintaining a no-hire, no-fire mentality,” he says.

The September report was delayed by the longest government shutdown in US history. Originally due Oct. 3, it’s now set to be released on Nov. 20. The status of the October jobs report has not been officially announced, although White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said payroll data will be released at some point.

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