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mahatmakanejeeves

(67,595 posts)
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 07:28 AM Wednesday

Delayed September Jobs Report Expected to Show Continued Weak Growth

Last edited Wed Nov 19, 2025, 08:28 AM - Edit history (1)

Delayed September Jobs Report Expected to Show Continued Weak Growth

Job growth has significantly slowed since the start of 2025.

Gabe Alpert
Nov 18, 2025

Key Takeaways
• Economists forecast the September 2025 employment report will show 50,000 new jobs were added while the unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.3%.
• Job growth has slowed significantly since the start of the year.
• Despite the expected weak pace of hiring, odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December have declined to less than 50%.

Economists predict that the September jobs report, scheduled to be released Thursday, will show a continued soft job market, with only a slight uptick in hiring after a weak reading in August.

Nonfarm payrolls are predicted to have expanded by 50,000 in September, up from 22,000 in August, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. By contrast, the US economy was adding roughly 100,000 jobs per month at the start of the year.

“It will be further confirmation that the labor market trend we saw during the summer, which was pretty weak, continued into the fall,” says Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide. He forecasts the employment report will show the economy added 40,000-50,000 jobs in September. “I would call the job market stagnant, and I think there’s still a lot of credence to the idea that firms are maintaining a no-hire, no-fire mentality,” he says.

The September report was delayed by the longest government shutdown in US history. Originally due Oct. 3, it’s now set to be released on Nov. 20. The status of the October jobs report has not been officially announced, although White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said payroll data will be released at some point.

{snip}
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mahatmakanejeeves

(67,595 posts)
3. (That "shrug" emoji thing.)
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 08:12 AM
Wednesday

To answer your question, "I don't know." Which isn't really an answer.

Whenever BLS puts that on its schedule, the news will show up here.

And good morning.

dem4decades

(13,430 posts)
4. I just meant that the September report is delayed and the October report should follow shortly, I'd hope.
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 08:27 AM
Wednesday

Could finally be the one-two punch that actually describes the economy under this shithead.

mahatmakanejeeves

(67,595 posts)
5. No problem. I added a paragraph to the OP.
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 08:31 AM
Wednesday

Last edited Wed Nov 19, 2025, 01:13 PM - Edit history (1)

The official response is "at some point." Maybe we'll get a double whammy on the first Friday in December. All I know is what I read in the paper.

progree

(12,577 posts)
11. For Establishment Survey data, the October data will be published with the November data on December 16
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 04:28 PM
Wednesday

The Establishment Survey produces the headline non-farm payroll jobs numbers, so we'll see that, just way delayed.

There will never be an October unemployment rate number published since Household Survey data was never collected, and it has long been decided not to try to collect that retroactively..

progree

(12,577 posts)
6. The latest data -- through August
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 01:06 PM
Wednesday
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly increases
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

I set the date range from 2024 to 2025 (the default is 2015 to 2025, both date ranges include thru August 2025) because the latter range -- with the huge pandemic changes in 2020 -- make everything before and after look like tiny squiggles hugging the x axis.

January 2024 - August 2025


These numbers do not include the downward 911,000 jobs revision in the April 1, 2024 thru March 31, 2025 period that was announced in September. They have not, and it's my understanding they never will come up with a month-by-month breakdown . It's an average of 76,000 jobs per month downward. I believe these will show up in the data series in early March 2026, but will have to dig for the articles.

When it does show up in the data series, are they just going to adjust each of the monthly numbers down by 76,000? I don't know.

They do this kind of 12-months revision annually. IIRC, the previous one was something over 500k downward. I could dig in and find out what they did as far as adjusting the data series, if I took the time to find out.

peppertree

(23,028 posts)
7. Another idea Needy Amin seems to have gotten from his pal Macri in Argentina (they still talk)
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 01:36 PM
Wednesday

Even before Macri took office in December 2015, it was clear that his shock devaluation would cause a jump in unemployment - so what's a Panama Papers kleptocrat to do?

He simply declared a "statistical emergency" - and quashed the IV 2015 and the I 2016 jobless numbers (though jobs data are published monthly in Argentina, unemployment data are published quarterly).

Once his honeymoon wore off, mid-year, Congress finally demanded that employment and GDP data be published - and sure enough, they showed that unemployment jumped from 5.9% in III 2015, to 9.3% in II 2016.

And the two missing quarters? His statistics director (a Trump-style misogynist cabrón, who later died of a massive heart attack) had them destroyed (a felony) - but officials from the previous administration stated that the IV 2015 data would've read 5.4%.

These days, of course, most Argentines earn so little that the point is almost moot (the minimum wage has lost 60% of its real value since then - and many of the "employed" have but odd jobs and delivery gigs for a few hours a week, earning "African" wages as they're called down there).

That's Trump's economic model.

11 Bravo

(24,253 posts)
10. Anyone believing any part of of any document released by this admin is dumber than a bag of hair.
Wed Nov 19, 2025, 03:48 PM
Wednesday
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