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as of 25 September 2023 Russia held 18% of Ukrainian territory (0.1% more than in December 2022), as of 31 December 2024 it held 19%, and as of 28 October 2025 again it held 19%, having made only marginal gains, and those at great cost in materiel and casualties.

The bare figures and maps don't reflect the strategic consequence of any gains, but currently Russia seems to be looking more for positive publicity to convince Trump et al. that it's doing OK than pursuing any coherent war plan. If it had devoted more of its firepower on strategic targets in Ukraine rather than incessant bombing of civilians and non-military facilities, it might be in a more favourable position.

None of this takes into account Ukraine's demolition of the Black Sea fleet, erosion of Russian air defences, and deep strikes on arms production and oil and gas facilities, which don't show up on those sorts of simplistic maps above. Meanwhile, Ukraine is far better armed than it was two summers ago, with many more supplies in the pipeline, and has progressively softened up Crimea for future action.

As before, it there's a Russian collapse and withdrawal in any oblast in the face of personnel challenges and/or lack of fuel or weaponry, it could happen quite suddenly, and no doubt again be presented as a magnanimous withdrawal.