Somebody reported last week that 2025 has seen a negative 1 million jobs created.
I don't believe it myself.
The closest thing to a million jobs loss is this downward revision report from early September. Meaning job gains over the year thru March 2025 were 911,000 fewer than previously reported (an average of 76K/month downward revision)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143526633Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized, CNBC, 9/9/25
Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Also, the 150,000 rule of thumb is no longer with nearly net zero immigration.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/lower-immigration-projections-mean-lower-breakeven-employment-growth
Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, August 28, 2025
In April this year, St. Louis Fed economist Victoria Gregory and I provided an estimate for breakeven employment growth—the number of jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep the unemployment rate steady. Using Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections from January, we estimated that the U.S. economy needed to add more than 150,000 jobs per month to maintain a stable unemployment rate.
Since then, new immigration projections have dramatically changed the picture. The bottom line: With much lower expected immigration for 2025, I now estimate breakeven employment growth has fallen to a range between 32,000 and 82,000 jobs per month.
============================================
This is the data, by the way, that the Fed used to justify the 25 basis point drop in interest rates, in spite of the risiing inflation. Hello, stagflation.
To be clear, I don't doubt that the pathetic job growth numbers aren't keeping up, and so the unemployment rate will continue to move upward.
ETA - I've also been yammering incessantly about rising inflation in numerous posts over the last few weeks,
this being my latest example, pointing out that inflation has risen to an average of a 3.6% annualized rate over the last 3 months
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3562249
= new reply since forum marked as read