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BumRushDaShow

(163,468 posts) Tue Nov 11, 2025, 09:15 AM Nov 11

The private sector shed jobs in late October, new ADP data show

Last edited Tue Nov 11, 2025, 10:20 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: MarketWatch

Last Updated: Nov. 11, 2025 at 9:17 a.m. ET
First Published: Nov. 11, 2025 at 8:38 a.m. ET

The private-sector job market contracted in late October, according to a new report from payroll-processing firm ADP. Private-sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, ADP said.

The monthly ADP data showed privately run businesses creating 42,000 new jobs in October — the first increase in three months. But that was front-loaded, as that job growth was concentrated at the beginning of October, and petered out at the end of the month, “suggesting,” according to ADP, “that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month.”

Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, called the October bounce in hiring tepid and not broad-based. ADP announced last month that it would publish a weekly estimate of the ADP National Employment report every Tuesday based on its high-frequency data.

Alternative data on the health of the labor market have become more important with the lack of government data due to the U.S. government shutdown.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-lost-jobs-in-late-october-new-weekly-adp-data-shows-f63ca25f

Article updated.

Original article/headline -

Private sector lost jobs in late October, new weekly ADP data shows

Published: Nov. 11, 2025 at 8:38 a.m. ET

The private-sector job market contracted slightly in late October, according to a new report from payroll processing firm ADP.

Private sector employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, “suggesting that the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of the month,” ADP said.

How the Federal Reserve perceives the labor market will be critical in their decision whether or not the central bankers to cut interest rates again at their meeting on Dec. 10.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates here.

7 replies

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The private sector shed jobs in late October, new ADP data show (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Nov 11 OP

Wait a sec Miguelito Loveless Nov 11 #1

The latest BLS jobs report, and the ADP monthly report for October that is in the excerpt progree Nov 11 #2

The Rule Of Thumb DallasNE Nov 11 #3

"Somebody reported"? progree Nov 11 #4

A Similar Report Using 1 Million Figure DallasNE Nov 11 #6

Thanks for the link. But those are not net job cuts, i.e. jobs lost minus jobs created progree Wednesday #7

Where are all the trillions coming from that's propping up an obviously failing economy? wolfie001 Nov 11 #5

Miguelito Loveless

(5,360 posts)

1. Wait a sec

Reply to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 10:17 AM

Nov 11

What report claimed jobs had gone up?

progree

(12,562 posts)

2. The latest BLS jobs report, and the ADP monthly report for October that is in the excerpt

Reply to Miguelito Loveless (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 11:38 AM

Nov 11

Last edited Tue Nov 11, 2025, 12:09 PM - Edit history (1)

The latest BLS jobs report -- it was for August that came out 9/5/25
+22,000 jobs
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143524396

ETA - granted, they are pathetically weak job gains by historic standards

DallasNE

(7,925 posts)

3. The Rule Of Thumb

Reply to progree (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 01:53 PM

Nov 11

Is that it takes 150,000 new jobs every month to keep up with population growth.

Somebody reported last week that 2025 has seen a negative 1 million jobs created.

For the first 10 months, that means that we are a negative 2.5 million jobs below what is necessary to absorb the growing population. And it will only get worse.

Tell us again, Trump, how much better off we are now than when he took the oath of office. This is the data, by the way, that the Fed used to justify the 25 basis point drop in interest rates, in spite of the risiing inflation. Hello, stagflation.

progree

(12,562 posts)

4. "Somebody reported"?

Reply to DallasNE (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 05:02 PM

Nov 11

Somebody reported last week that 2025 has seen a negative 1 million jobs created.

I don't believe it myself.

The closest thing to a million jobs loss is this downward revision report from early September. Meaning job gains over the year thru March 2025 were 911,000 fewer than previously reported (an average of 76K/month downward revision)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143526633

Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized, CNBC, 9/9/25

Annual revisions to nonfarm payrolls data for the year prior to March 2025 showed a drop of 911,000 from the initial estimates, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Also, the 150,000 rule of thumb is no longer with nearly net zero immigration.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/lower-immigration-projections-mean-lower-breakeven-employment-growth

Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, August 28, 2025

In April this year, St. Louis Fed economist Victoria Gregory and I provided an estimate for breakeven employment growth—the number of jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep the unemployment rate steady. Using Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections from January, we estimated that the U.S. economy needed to add more than 150,000 jobs per month to maintain a stable unemployment rate.

Since then, new immigration projections have dramatically changed the picture. The bottom line: With much lower expected immigration for 2025, I now estimate breakeven employment growth has fallen to a range between 32,000 and 82,000 jobs per month.

============================================

This is the data, by the way, that the Fed used to justify the 25 basis point drop in interest rates, in spite of the risiing inflation. Hello, stagflation.

To be clear, I don't doubt that the pathetic job growth numbers aren't keeping up, and so the unemployment rate will continue to move upward.

ETA - I've also been yammering incessantly about rising inflation in numerous posts over the last few weeks,

this being my latest example, pointing out that inflation has risen to an average of a 3.6% annualized rate over the last 3 months
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3562249

DallasNE

(7,925 posts)

6. A Similar Report Using 1 Million Figure

Reply to progree (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 09:40 PM

Nov 11

The link below is more extensive than what I read earlier, but it mentions the top line of 1 million jobs lost, so I feel they had a common source.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2025/11/06/more-than-1-million-jobs-have-been-cut-this-year-report-says/

Like you, I prefer the moving averages over the fixed one-month reports, especially for inflation. I also don't like that they exclude food from the inflation computation. I understand the volatility issue and seasonal factors, but still think some consideration is necessary.

progree

(12,562 posts)

7. Thanks for the link. But those are not net job cuts, i.e. jobs lost minus jobs created

Reply to DallasNE (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 12, 2025, 06:26 AM

Wednesday

Last edited Wed Nov 12, 2025, 07:20 AM - Edit history (1)

but rather just the layoffs part of it.

This is entirely different than the BLS's report on 911,000 jobs downward revision in #4, which is the 12 months through March 2025. That is not the source of the Challenger Gray and Christmas layoffs report.

I searched on:
the job cut figures from challenger gray and christmas - are those net job losses, i.e. jobs created minus jobs lost?

and I haven't read anything different. And they are far different than ADP or BLS net jobs gained/lost (though the latest on the latter is only through August)

===========================================

As for inflation, both the CPI and the PCE include food and energy, and these are what is usually headlined by the media. When they don't, they always say "core inflation", at least that's my experience reading these things every month for years.

It's the CORE CPI and CORE PCE that don't include food and energy.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The latest on PCE is: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2025

PCE inflation for the latest 5 months are in the news release http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm
Click on Full Release and Tables (PDF)
Go to Table 5.

When I report on the CPI and PCE in the LBN inflation threads(that BumRushDaShow usually starts), I always show both the CPI and Core CPI, e.g.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3552722

Ditto the PCE.

I definitely agree that when assessing one's cost of living, and reported salaries and wages, one should be comparing to the regular inflation measures that include food and energy, for sure.

The core measures are what the Fed prefers as far as projecting FUTURE inflation, and back-testing studies back that up as a better predictor.

wolfie001

(6,555 posts)

5. Where are all the trillions coming from that's propping up an obviously failing economy?

Reply to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Tue Nov 11, 2025, 06:10 PM

Nov 11

So many sectors are on life-support. Energy, airlines, vacation destinations, can't imagine people are spending $ hand-over-fist. Is this all AI-investment?

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