DU Primaries Report, March 2020: And Then There Were Two [View all]

Welcome to the twelfth monthly DU Primaries Report, based on the ongoing candidate preferences of DU members right here in the Democratic Primaries forum!

Previously on the DU Primaries Report

February 2020: Fasten Your Seatbelts! (With Guest Host Steve Kornacki)
January 2020: The End Of The Beginning
December 2019: Farewell To Harris
November 2019: Comings And Goings
October 2019: Ups And Downs
September 2019: So Trump Is Getting Impeached
August 2019: I'll Just Get My Coat
July 2019: Look, a Squirrel!
June 2019: Warren Takes Charge
May 2019: Steady As She Goes
April 2019: Let's Get This Party Started!

Where the candidates stand this month

It's hard to believe that just one month ago it was business as usual and we weren't all locked in our homes waiting out a deadly pandemic, but here we are. In fact it almost seems frivolous to be discussing the primaries when there's a slow-motion global disaster taking place. That said, later this year our nominee will be taking on the all-important task of replacing the worst president in American history and putting out the dumpster fire he created. Unseating Trump is more important now than ever, and so we press on.

This month we say au revoir to all but two of our candidates.



Michael Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren all dropped out in March, leaving just two candidates in the race -- Joe Biden, and Bernie Sanders. Based on the numbers for March, it seems clear that most of those ex-candidates' supporters have headed into the Biden camp, giving him a huge boost on DU. How huge? Let's take a look.

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, February/March 2020



Biden's ascendancy began immediately after his victory in the South Carolina primary on February 29, and he was off like a rocket following Super Tuesday on March 3. With 15.62% support on DU just over a month ago on February 28, Biden now sits at 37.64%, a staggering increase of 22.02 percentage points.

A view of the all-time graph really puts that increase in perspective:

Candidates above 1% actual support, excluding Undecided, all-time



Meanwhile, Undecideds were all over the place as supporters of the five ex-candidates were automatically switched to Undecided status.

Candidates above 1% actual support, including Undecided, February/March 2020



Undecided reached its highest point ever after Elizabeth Warren -- previously DU's most popular candidate -- dropped out. Starting the month on 43.38%, Undecided climbed 13.63 percentage points in a week to 57.01% before declining back to 48.19% today -- less than five percentage points higher than the Undecided total at the beginning of March.

And following the wave of drop-outs at the start of the month, Undecideds clearly did not break for Bernie Sanders here on DU. He did gain a little ground -- starting March at 12.87%, Sanders climbed 1.3 percentage points to 14.17% by the end of the month -- although even that is a slight decline from his March peak of 14.4%, recorded on the 16th.

Next month's predictions

Unfortunately it's a fact that the coronavirus crisis will dominate the news for the foreseeable future. While there are still a handful of primaries scheduled for April, many have already been postponed until later in the year. Current conventional wisdom suggests that it's unlikely the race will be over by this time next month, but in these uncertain times, anything could happen. Regardless, the next Primaries Report will take place on Monday, April 27. Whether it will be the final wrap-up or not remains to be seen.

In the meantime: stay home as much as you can, follow social distancing guidelines, and take care of yourselves. If you're looking for ways to help (or get help) during this difficult time, there are plenty of ways to do so. If you're fortunate enough to be able to help, do what you can to support our brave frontline medical workers and first responders, not to mention the truckers, delivery drivers, grocery store workers, and everyone else who is out there putting their lives on the line to keep the rest of us going.

Good luck, everyone, and stay safe.