Democratic Primaries

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html]

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.
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Researchers believe the 1918 flu spared older people because they had some immunity to it. They theorize that decades earlier there had been a version of that virus, one that was not as lethal and spread like an ordinary flu. The older people living in 1918 would have been exposed to that less lethal flu and developed antibodies. As for children, most viral illnesses — measles, chickenpox — are more deadly in young adults, which may explain why the youngest were spared in the 1918 epidemic.

Regardless of the reason, it was a disaster for life expectancy, which plummeted. In 1917, life expectancy in the United States was 51 years. It was the same in 1919. But in 1918, it was just 39 years.

The Spanish flu killed people in their 20-40's much more often than older Americans because it was similar to an earlier flu that many people were exposed to. Coronavirus is new, so older Americans have no special immunity to it. We can keep keep the death rate lower than the Spanish flu with testing, the less testing, the worse the situation will be because fewer tests mean that the disease will tend to spread faster. The death rate with Spanish flu was similar to coronavirus--2.5% for Spanish flu and somewhere between 2-6% for coronavirus, where the best guess right now based on Wuhan data is 3.4%.

Again, testing is key. The less testing, the worse things get.

Seattle Mayor Jenny A. Durkan said today to Ari Melber on his MSNBC TV show "The Beat" that in Seattle area alone, Experts estimate that if they do not take sufficient action now, the estimated 1100 cases that they have right now will by April 7th become 25,000 cases and result in 400 deaths in the Seattle area alone. If we fail to do enough, the death rate will be huge.