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Democratic Primaries

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wiley

(2,921 posts)
Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:47 PM Mar 2020

Joe Biden takes huge lead in Washington State. Crushing Defeat for Sanders [View all]

It's the end of the road for Sanders.

From Nate Silver
@NateSilver538

You can lose Texas and still have a winning Democratic coalition. You can lose Michigan and still have a winning coalition. You can lose Washington state and still have a winning Democratic coalition. But you sure as hell can't lose all three of them.

Haven't looked at *every* county in Washington but I've looked at a lot:

On average, Biden is doing 22-24% better in new returns than in the ones released last night (depending on how you weight the average). And Bernie is doing 5-7% better.

So that's a net swing of ~17% toward Biden. If ~45% of returns were not counted on election night, Biden would eventually win Washington by 7 or 8 points.

It's hard to imagine Sanders hanging on in Washington with this big a Biden margin in the new wave of votes.
Joe Biden takes the lead in Washington state.

He carries the first wave of new votes from King County (Seattle area) 58 to 37. Sanders led the initial King County count.

https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20200310/President-Democratic-Party_ByCounty.html
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Undecided
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Oof! It's over Bernie! NT Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #1
Thanks, wiley! Cha Mar 2020 #2
Holy mackerel!!! showblue22 Mar 2020 #3
He bragged about winning WA in his upside-down concession speech ... ucrdem Mar 2020 #4
What? BS said he won Washington in that Cha Mar 2020 #13
He didn't. musicblind Mar 2020 #15
And now he's lost Washington.. thank you. Cha Mar 2020 #16
The map didn't show up right on my android phone. Is the pea green color Biden? Bernie is yellow? Vivienne235729 Mar 2020 #5
On my laptop, I see Biden in grey and Sanders in beige. Talitha Mar 2020 #7
It's like that blue or grey dress that went viral. Ha! Truth be told, it's probably my eyes. Lol Vivienne235729 Mar 2020 #10
A 1.5% is a "huge lead"? former9thward Mar 2020 #6
Yes, it is. Sanders won that state before by 26 points. NCProgressive Mar 2020 #9
It was a caucus then, this was a primary now. nt fleabiscuit Mar 2020 #29
I didn't think Biden was even suppose to come close in WA. This is Bernie's territory. Or so it WAS. Vivienne235729 Mar 2020 #11
I think it's a reference to the late vote cited in the article. Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #12
With 300K votes left at an average of same day of 80% going to Biden wiley Mar 2020 #22
... NCProgressive Mar 2020 #8
... betsuni Mar 2020 #14
Any idea how soon this race might be called? n/t Tarheel_Dem Mar 2020 #17
There are only 300K votes left to be counted. wiley Mar 2020 #21
Thank you. Tarheel_Dem Mar 2020 #25
Do you have link to Nate Solver column? grantcart Mar 2020 #18
@Nate_Cohn wiley Mar 2020 #20
It appears as though the revolution blue-wave Mar 2020 #19
Wow! There is ANOTHER HUMILIATING DEFEAT!!! NurseJackie Mar 2020 #23
Deep South, Border State, Rust Belt, Pacific Northwest. Scurrilous Mar 2020 #24
Out of all the states Sanders got Idaho. LizBeth Mar 2020 #26
It looks like he lost Idaho too. ucrdem Mar 2020 #27
Oh, ok. My bad. It was N Dakota, lol. Ha ha. LizBeth Mar 2020 #28
Bernie Proving His Only Real Strength is Caucuses and There Weren't Enough To Boost Him in 2020 Indykatie Mar 2020 #30
still lots of votes left to counted in California as a couple of million still waiting to be beachbumbob Mar 2020 #31
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