2016 Postmortem

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)

106. Advantages, not "perfectness," of Scandinavian democratic socialism.

Sat Dec 3, 2016, 04:16 PM

Dec 2016

Hell, even a Trump-voting family member who has spent time working in Denmark said he'd move there in heartbeat. Germany, too.

You see smears; I see constructive criticism re: policy differences. Bernie also defended Hillary re: *the damn e-mails*, so he can't be scapegoated for that.

Back to Florida:

2008
Obama: 51.03%
McCain: 48.22%
Third Party: .75%

2012
Obama: 50.01%
Mittens: 49.13%
Third Party: .86%

2016
Hillary: 47.8%
Trump: 49.0%
Third Party: 3.2%

That's a big increase in third-party voters. Sure, it's easy to blame mythical protest voters, but DU underestimates: 1) Clinton fatigue; 2) Hillary hatred lingering from the '90s; 3) dislike of Obamacare (especially those with soaring premiums and deductibles); 4) rejection of political dynasties (Jeb lost); and 4) etc.

This Professor Lichtman from AU is interesting -- he's correctly predicted presidential election winners since 1984:

...

So, we studied every American election from 1860 to 1980. This was in 1981, guided by the thesis that presidential elections are primarily judgments on the performance and strength of the party holding the White House. And from that study, we came up with 13 simple, true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the re-election of the White House party. And we came up with a really simple decision rule: if six or more of the keys are false, that bodes defeat for the party holding the White House.

...

Critically, the party holding the White House did not achieve major policy change in the second Obama term. So, they didn’t have a big domestic accomplishment to run on. In addition, they didn’t achieve a big splashy foreign policy success.

....

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/accurately-predict-presidential-election/

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What's with all the threads about Sanders? This is DU. He is NOT [View all] lunamagica Dec 2016 OP

Because BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #1

That was an "appointment," no one in the caucus elected him to anything. MADem Dec 2016 #2

It bothers me that he's still too cool for school BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #7

Either you're a Democrat ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #36

Saying we shouldn't listen to or consider political positions offered by democrank Dec 2016 #69

I totally agree with you..... dembychoice Dec 2016 #73

Bernie will not help us win. Demsrule86 Dec 2016 #100

The problem has never been that the Democrats were not open to different people. Quite the contrary. politicaljunkie41910 Dec 2016 #115

Well, there's a reason Barney Frank called him a pain in the ass BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #80

Here's the idea, to paraphrase LBJ.... MADem Dec 2016 #43

He really get under your skin. I can see that. pangaia Dec 2016 #55

.... Om .... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #65

The fact that you said that suggests that you're the one with the rash, not me. nt MADem Dec 2016 #70

Yes...I think Schumer and Reid before him have handled him well BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #74

Where else is he going to go with his liberal views; the GOP? politicaljunkie41910 Dec 2016 #114

Sanders' Democratic leadership position.... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #5

PERHAPS. elleng Dec 2016 #42

LOL SMC22307 Dec 2016 #47

Oh gee, I hope it's not THAT loony, elleng Dec 2016 #50

The GOP was going to bury him with oppo research... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #52

RIght, one of THOSE places! elleng Dec 2016 #94

Golda who?! SMC22307 Dec 2016 #98

Oh my goodness! elleng Dec 2016 #99

Completely agree. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #103

Not ANY kibbutz. It was a Stalin-friendly one. MADem Dec 2016 #105

He and his team wouldn't have shrinked from attacks... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #108

And he would have been mocked and eaten alive. MADem Dec 2016 #109

Wouldn't surprise me. pangaia Dec 2016 #56

Me, neither. But before SS and Medicare... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #59

K&R dembychoice Dec 2016 #118

Well, since Hillary isn't in office, it's good to keep up... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #3

I am pretty sure Warren and the rest of the Dems can handle that. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #9

The more voices the merrier. Especially with Hillary no longer in public office. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #10

Leadership position. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #11

Goodness, just how sour are those grapes? (n/t) SMC22307 Dec 2016 #13

It won't matter how beneficial he is in fighting Trump b/c many believe he cost someone her crown. MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #16

Well, they better get over it quick... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #18

Were you PISSED and humiliated when Bernie lost the primary? R B Garr Dec 2016 #26

'Crown', huh? JSup Dec 2016 #32

Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #39

Goodness! sheshe2 Dec 2016 #17

He and his supporters are the convenient scapegoat. JudyM Dec 2016 #87

Yep. One of many scapegoats. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #101

Let's hope he does a better job than in the primary. He lost that contest and in the process R B Garr Dec 2016 #25

Trump says a lot of things. Why do you believe him? SMC22307 Dec 2016 #29

See, this is a perfect example of how out of touch you sound. R B Garr Dec 2016 #40

How many "embittered Sanders supporters went to Trump"? SMC22307 Dec 2016 #44

The primary lasted almost a year. Did you catch any of it? Any news? R B Garr Dec 2016 #48

People say a lot of things. Neither of us know what they actually did. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #51

Sigh. More out of touch denials from you. There is a Bernie Sanders group here. R B Garr Dec 2016 #54

It's tragic that 300,000+ Florida Democrats voted for Bush rather than Gore. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #57

You can't spell Sanders without Nader. R B Garr Dec 2016 #60

Speaking of Florida, why did Hillary lose a state that Obama carried twice? SMC22307 Dec 2016 #62

Speaking of losing. Why did Bernie lose California, a state Hillary carried twice? R B Garr Dec 2016 #85

Advantages, not "perfectness," of Scandinavian democratic socialism. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #106

To heck with Denmark. Bernie couldn't even get it passed in Vermont. R B Garr Dec 2016 #110

'You can't spell Sanders without Nader' -- thread winner ucrdem Dec 2016 #64

Hillary lost 32 Iowa counties carried by Obama in 2012. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #66

The point is that by running hard against Clinton, from within her own party, ucrdem Dec 2016 #67

Hillary came in third after Obama and John Edwards in Iowa's 2008 caucus. SMC22307 Dec 2016 #112

Why couldn't Bernie get single payer passed in Vermont? His adopted home state with a measly R B Garr Dec 2016 #86

oops ucrdem Dec 2016 #61

Didn't he already cave on minimum wage? leftofcool Dec 2016 #63

No. (n/t) SMC22307 Dec 2016 #111

Why not Lotusflower70 Dec 2016 #4

he may not be a card carrying Champion Jack Dec 2016 #6

Bernie is more of a Democrat, than most Democrats! putitinD Dec 2016 #27

Thread win. We seem to have forgotten our deepest values. JudyM Dec 2016 #88

I think we've been through this over and over again already. longship Dec 2016 #8

Well.... sheshe2 Dec 2016 #14

Well, she, you won't find me trashing her. longship Dec 2016 #19

I am angry. I am hurt. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #23

I understand, my good friend. longship Dec 2016 #24

Many of us will not survive. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #30

I am dead if they kill Medicare. longship Dec 2016 #34

Why not use the tools Skinner, et al. have so kindly provided? SMC22307 Dec 2016 #33

Lol! sheshe2 Dec 2016 #35

You admit up-thread that you're tired. Rather than complain... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #38

Well yes. I am tired. sheshe2 Dec 2016 #41

My pleasure. (n/t) SMC22307 Dec 2016 #45

I think we're being told to bow down again. R B Garr Dec 2016 #49

Yes, and someone is the Dems Savior because they caucus with the Dems, and they will save Fla Dem Dec 2016 #96

lol melman Dec 2016 #90

LOL SMC22307 Dec 2016 #113

LOL! Lucky Luciano Dec 2016 #117

This message was self-deleted by its author Duckhunter935 Dec 2016 #83

And what about your incessant trashing of Bernie and his supporters? You can't see that's generating JudyM Dec 2016 #89

but are prefectly fine with, or blind to the opposite? Nobody polices their own here, JCanete Dec 2016 #102

Uhh... the Goldwater girl is a "lifelong Democrat" GummyBearz Dec 2016 #53

Does a D next to his name mean more than what he is fighting for on our behalf? PatsFan87 Dec 2016 #12

Exactly. And as he's fighting Trump to protect SS and Medicare... SMC22307 Dec 2016 #15

Truth. Welcome to DU, PatsFan! JudyM Dec 2016 #92

conventional wisdom is that he would have gejohnston Dec 2016 #20

Enough guys. Hillary and Bernie are both great Democrats/Democrat caucus members. StevieM Dec 2016 #21

Fellow traveller HassleCat Dec 2016 #22

Better Democrat than MOST Democrats. Bernie truly is for the middle class. putitinD Dec 2016 #31

And renewable energy. JudyM Dec 2016 #93

He is important. He speaks for a great many Democrats. And better yet applegrove Dec 2016 #28

It's puzzling to me that so few of our political leaders are publicly challenging tRump. Warren is, JudyM Dec 2016 #95

Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #37

What's with all the threads about Donald Trump? He is NOT a Republican. cer7711 Dec 2016 #46

Millions of Democrats voted for him to be presidential nominee. David__77 Dec 2016 #58

This message was self-deleted by its author Raine Dec 2016 #68

Ah yes kcdoug1 Dec 2016 #71

If Sanders had won, I would have found myself voting for a flawed candidate. stonecutter357 Dec 2016 #72

Because frazzled Dec 2016 #75

You felt it necessary to start another OP about Bernie just to say this? stone space Dec 2016 #76

Lots of people on DU aren't Democrats Bad Dog Dec 2016 #77

Correct. He's an Underground Democrat. N/t yodermon Dec 2016 #78

And we dont like click bait randr Dec 2016 #79

Yet votes more like a Democrat then many carrieing the lable FreakinDJ Dec 2016 #81

This message was self-deleted by its author Duckhunter935 Dec 2016 #82

But he fights for Democratic principles, and we need as many people like that as we can get! GreenPartyVoter Dec 2016 #84

Maybe you should read the Terms of Service again. TransitJohn Dec 2016 #91

Oh people are grieving ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #97

I strongly agree with your analysis and conclusions Gothmog Dec 2016 #104

I honestly wonder if democrats WANT to continue losing. FourScore Dec 2016 #107

Since when did we only talk about Democrats? gollygee Dec 2016 #116