2016 Postmortem

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

27. Zero states split their tickets for president and Senate for the first time in American history

Sat Dec 3, 2016, 02:53 PM

Dec 2016

Zero states split their tickets for president and Senate for the first time in American history
By Stephen Wolf Dec 01, 2016

MANCHESTER, NH - OCTOBER 24: Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (R) and New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan look on during a campaign rally at Saint Anselm College on October 24, 2016 in Manchester, New Hampshire. With just over two weeks to go until the election, Hillary Clinton is campaigning in

Americans in every state began directly electing their senators in 1914 following the passage of the 17th Amendment. The next 25 presidential elections, from 1916 to 2012, always saw at least some states vote for candidates of different parties for president and Senate. That long streak finally came to an end in 2016, when every single state voted for the same party for both the presidency and the Senate. Democrats won 12 Senate seats, all in states that Hillary Clinton carried, and Republicans won 21 Senate contests, all in states where Donald Trump prevailed. Republicans are also strongly favored to win a December runoff in one more Trump state, Louisiana.

You can see this remarkable set of results in sharp relief in the graph below:

.................

Exit polls are noteworthy in this regard also, particularly so because they deviate to greater red shifts in accord with Republican need to win Senate seats.

The 20 contested Senate states have an extra 1% red shift compared to the mean of the 29 states polled nationally. Those without contested Senate seats average 2.4%.

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Chances of Wisconsin Presidential Vote Results shown to be 1 in 850, and Worse for Other States [View all] Coyotl Dec 2016 OP

What exit polls? The ones from CNN seem spot on. jmg257 Dec 2016 #1

Those are exit polls adjusted to match reported results (except votes counted after the election) Land Shark Dec 2016 #3

Sheesh - thanks. How/why do they do that??? Where are the raw ones? jmg257 Dec 2016 #4

People screen capture them before adjusted. You can find election data here Land Shark Dec 2016 #8

Thanks - here is some onfo from Edison research who apparently does the actuall polling. jmg257 Dec 2016 #12

You should be confused Land Shark Dec 2016 #16

Exit polls in other countries Igel Dec 2016 #28

So you're thinking exit pollsters are pretty stupid then Land Shark Dec 2016 #29

Where are the raw ones? That question has been hovering in the air since at least 2000. tandem5 Dec 2016 #9

Election data and analysis without opinion published at tdmsresearch.com Land Shark Dec 2016 #13

the exit polls you are looking at have been "corrected" to correlate with the "results" imaginary girl Dec 2016 #5

Yes I have seen that too...Who/why do they do that? Weird. nt jmg257 Dec 2016 #6

A gap between exit polls and Election results beyond margin of error means one of them is wrong Land Shark Dec 2016 #10

The kicker is that since 2000 the exits are always red-shifted (election results better for Rs) Land Shark Dec 2016 #11

That is just crazy - what's the point then? They just want to get an idea of trends? Not jmg257 Dec 2016 #14

They want to create the fodder for those who read political tea leaves Land Shark Dec 2016 #17

I don't know (n/t) imaginary girl Dec 2016 #25

Source: CNN.com. Compiled by Jonathan D. Simon election night, unadjusted numbers. Coyotl Dec 2016 #22

I do not expect a different outcome. gordianot Dec 2016 #2

People protect themselves from disappointment. Nobody knows what the ballots really say Land Shark Dec 2016 #7

A few factors militate against successful recounts, like.... Land Shark Dec 2016 #15

The Cuyahoga Election Board chairman was the head of the Ohio Republican Party in 2004. Coyotl Dec 2016 #20

Garbage in-garbage out hueymahl Dec 2016 #18

Was a similar anylysis done for Pa, Mi, Fla., and N.C.? triron Dec 2016 #19

Yes, same link. Coyotl Dec 2016 #21

I found Pa and N. C. triron Dec 2016 #23

We have the numbers of respondents for each state and the formula for MoE here: Coyotl Dec 2016 #30

I did a very rough back-of-the-envelope triron Dec 2016 #24

Indeed. Each exit poll is a separate poll. What are the odds they all will shift red? Coyotl Dec 2016 #26

Zero states split their tickets for president and Senate for the first time in American history Coyotl Dec 2016 #27

knr triron Dec 2016 #31