https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/290852.shtml?
(snip)
The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow
between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this
morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward
during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the
hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas
later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the
center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and
Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable
changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There
was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the
official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends.
Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across
eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over
the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters,
and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce
further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this
week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite
imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and
becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday.
No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction,
which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
(snip)