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jimmy the one

(2,765 posts)
1. fear the DGU
Tue Apr 26, 2016, 02:25 PM
Apr 2016

sarisatak: {gun control group VPC} .. That gives an average of 54,433 DGUs per year. By presenting the graphic which shows 211 justifiable homicides, he has waved away 99.6% of DGUs. (Or to put it another way, armed civilians ward off an attacker without fatality 99.6% of the time) ......

{CDC center for disease control} also considered the number of DGUs derived from the NCVS and stated that low number to be "dubious" due to the wording of the questions on the NCVS

To do a justifiable defensive gun use, you would normally be a law abiding gun owner (LAGO); what do readers think would inhibit a L.A. gun owner from revealing he performed a DGU, even if the question was worded 'improperly'? You would think they'd wanna toot their own horn, no?
The NCVS is the national crime victimization survey, which measures both reported & UNreported crime.
Let's see if I have interpreted past pro gun arguments on these here boards correctly. Gun owners UNDER-report guns they own so as not to be subject to the horrors of gun registration (several pro guns members will testify I'm sure).
So, let's suppose some NCVS interviewer is asking LAGO's whether they performed a DGU last year, and they think back & remember that they did not REPORT the crime they are talking about {over 80% of violent crimes are evidently not reported}, and whoa nelly - you think I'm gonna report I pulled my gun out & scared off bad guy & didn't report the incident to police??? you think I'm crazy? I'd be arrested on the spot (they might think).
.. Yes, 54,000 DGUs in one year is likely a low ball figure, but the valid figure is perhaps one or 2 hundred thousand, about a third simply verbal dgu's as 'go away or I'll get my gun', not that much more. Hardly 2.5 million as Gary Kleck contended in his faulty DGU study.
As for underreporting DGU's I suspect the lion's share of the blame goes on gun owners who performed a dgu, wanting to suppress the dgu to NCVS, similar to gun registration fears.

PS: I did not see VPC deception you refer to where 99.6% of dgus were 'waved away'. They were clearly marked as 54,433 as you noted (or rather 163,000/3yrs}. Which graphic are you referring to? the title.

2014: UCR, Uniform Crime Reports of reported crime, fbi stats: There were an estimated 1,165,383 violent crimes (murder and non-negligent homicides, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults) reported by law enforcement.
{2014 avg} NCVS, including UNreported crime: Avg year per VPC stats: ~6,000,000, more than 5 times higher than UCR.


2014, UCR: There were an estimated 8,277,829 property crimes (burglaries, larceny-thefts, and motor vehicle thefts) reported by law enforcement.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2015/september/latest-crime-stats-released/latest-crime-stats-released
NCVS, 2014 avg: ~17,000,000, or 17 million, approx twice the reported property crimes.

Each year, BJS interviews a nationally representative sample of approximately 169,000 persons age 12 or older living in U.S. households..The NCVS collects information on crimes experienced by individuals and households during the 6 months preceding the interview, whether or not those crimes were reported to law enforcement. A unique feature of the NCVS is that it collects both reported and unreported crimes and reasons the crime was or was not reported.

.. the two programs measure an overlapping but nonidentical set of crimes. The NCVS includes crimes both reported and not reported to law enforcement. The NCVS excludes, but the UCR includes, homicide, arson, commercial crimes, and crimes against children under age 12. The UCR captures crimes reported to law enforcement but collects only arrest data for simple assaults and sexual assaults other than forcible rape.
..Third, because of methodology, the NCVS and UCR definitions of some crime differ. For example, the UCR defines burglary as the unlawful entry or attempted entry of a structure to commit a felony or theft. The NCVS, not wanting to ask victims to ascertain offender motives, defines burglary as the entry or attempted entry of a residence by a person who had no right to be there.
..Fourth, for property crimes (burglary, theft, and motor vehicle theft), the two programs calculate crime rates using different bases. The UCR rates for these crimes are per capita (number of crimes per 100,000 persons), whereas the NCVS rates for these crimes are per household (number of crimes per 1,000 households). Because the number of households may not grow at the same rate each year as the total population, trend data for rates of property crimes measured by the two programs may not be comparable.
.. In addition, some differences in the data from the two programs may result from sampling variation in the NCVS and from estimating for nonresponse in the UCR. The BJS derives the NCVS estimates from interviewing a sample and are, therefore, subject to a margin of error. .. The UCR Program bases its data on the actual counts of offenses reported by law enforcement agencies.
https://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_04/appendices/appendix_04.html

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

fear the DGU jimmy the one Apr 2016 #1
To prominently title a chart sarisataka Apr 2016 #4
They had no "integrity" to lose. oneshooter Apr 2016 #2
I need to give a great review... discntnt_irny_srcsm Apr 2016 #3
I have a pair sarisataka Apr 2016 #5
obviously discntnt_irny_srcsm Apr 2016 #6
It only takes once...a risk I'm not willing to take. ileus Apr 2016 #7
Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Gun Control & RKBA»Guns, self-defense and re...»Reply #1