Creative Speculation

I hate to repeat myself but I do believe (sketchy word now-a-days) 'Peak Oil' is representing supply. Demand can go up and down, but 'Peak' is representing the total world oil reserves.

Once we produced half the entire worlds supply, demand be damnedd, that is 'Peak Oil.' Doesn't matter what demand is... supply does not change when measuring the 'total' reserves of fossil fuels.

If I had $10 and half of that, of course if $5, it doesn't matter that at $7 or $6.21 humans were 'demanding' more money from that 'well'. There was only $10 to begin with, and whether humans demanded more or less from me, once I'm past $5, then I can never borrow more than $5. When I was at $8, I could borrow $8. When I was at $6.38, I can borrow $6.38. But once I pass $5, now matter how much I try to develop or get to the money quicker, I can only borrow out $5 or less.

Java, if we were living on an island, and there were 100 persons (you and me included), we must have a food supply. But unlike normal horticulture, let's say we can't grow any more food; just can't make any more food for argument's sake.

So, 100 people, and we have 10,000 pds of food. We live ok for awhile, maybe some die and some are born. Doesn't matter to TRUE SUPPLY. Whether we got used to living by eating a lot or eating a little. It does not affect TRUE SUPPLY.

I'm saying that those 100 people will get used to having a certain appetite. But the TRUE SUPPLY doesn't, and never, changes. How much we've used does; but the ORIGINAL true supply can not change.

We harvest the food, starting out at 5 lbs a day, but by week 2 we're rolling with 30 lbs a day. Demand is increasing, but the TRUE SUPPLY, what we began with, doesn't change. By week 3, at 40 lbs a person shit starts to hit the fan. We've increased 'demand' but the TRUE SUPPLY is not changing; the amount we've consumed of it is; there's less and less food, and no way to make more.

On this island, you have some staticians et al and they tell you that there was 10,000 pds of food to begin with, but now we're down to 6,000. They tell you that when we hit 5,000 lbs (PEAK) we must start rationing because, no matter what aggregate (total) demand is, we have consumed half of our food supply. Before reaching 5,000 we could alwasy satisfy an increase in demand. But after PEAK we can no longer satisty an increase in demand.

After peak, because its supply, we can never satisfy an increase in demand. Before yes, not matter how close to HALF you get. But once you hit half: that's peak production and any increase in demand can not, and will not, be satisfied.