Foreign Affairs

What I'm seeing:
So there's been an information bubble within Russia, right? Putin knows no one's going to look out for him? And that oligarchs know that in reality Putin can't guarantee their security there, and they're not going to come out of this well through Putin, right?
Because authoritative information matters in this existential years-long war: How does Smart come to know all this.

The first casualty of war is Truth. I have to ask where this Smart guy is getting his information from besides Telegram. All we really know is what his YouTube summary tells us: that Smart was a political adviser who has lived and worked in Ukraine, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Latin America. In 2010, he was banned for life by the Kremlin... was he a hired PR propagandist?

Amazon "books" section says this:
Smart specializes in applying quantitative and qualitative data analysis in developing offensive and defensive political strategies, especially those related to defending or rebuilding one's reputation or brand after a character assassination attempt. Smart frequently writes on political subjects for the global press and regularly gives televised interviews.
His B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. all relate to political science and his doctoral dissertation specifically studied the phenomena of character assassination. Site: http://jasonjaysmart.com.

This report from the Institute for the Study of War seems contrary to what Smart is reporting:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-20-2025