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progree

(11,836 posts)
4. As stocks decline, people pour their money into safer investments like Treasuries
Mon Dec 31, 2018, 09:59 PM
Dec 2018

The S&P 500 high was Sept 20 (2931) ... and a very bad December -- from 2760 to 2507, a 9.2% decline in December.

A lot of people and institutions buying Treasuries pushes up their prices, which pushes down their yields. Yields move in opposite direction to prices.

Also, there has been some disappointing economic news in the last few days. Weaker economic expectations tend to push down yields.

Here's some Treasury yields. Note there wasn't a drop in yields over December for maturities less than a year, and even increases at the lower maturity end -- these are the most affected by changes in the Fed Funds rate.
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield

Also, before the December 19 Fed Funds rate hike, there were near-certainty expectations of the December hike, and expectations that there would be 3 rate hikes in 2019. These were to some degree already priced into the market.

In the December 19 meeting, expectations were reduced from 3 to 2 rate hikes in 2019, putting a bit of a downdraft on yields that would be affected by 2019 rate hikes (several months out and more).

People sell stocks on the dips when they should be buying on the dips.

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