Big Short 2.0 [View all]

This is a note that I've written pretty much just for myself. I'm trying to get my shit together financially and want to be ready for the next financial crisis... I'm leaning towards stock options as an investment strategy... This is what I've come up with so far, and I'd love to get some feedback and share ideas...

So based on what you remember about the last republican catastrophuck, here are some industries that will probably take a huge hit.

If people don't have money to spend, they will pull back on anything they'd consider a luxury, and postpone any big financial commitments.


high-end retailers (Apple for example, Jewelry, tech toys)

Department store chains Like Sears and Macy's may drop off the earth entirely...


Travel, Tourism and Entertainment (Hotels, Airlines, Rental Car Companies)

Theme Park attendance will take a big hit, but since most are tied to major film/media companies they may be okay cause people will rely on less expensive entertainment for an escape. That said movie theaters will see a big dip if prices don't drop to accommodate their financially strapped customer base.


Fancy Restaurants (Darden Foods, Cheesecake Factory, etc)... Still mourning the loss of Bennigans... those Monte-Christos...


Auto Industry... Think also ATV's, Boats, Motorcyles

Yeah, this one is a given... GMC and Chrysler needed a lot of help last time and I doubt this administration is going to give a shit about helping Union workers... If I were to guess, I'd say Ford is setting themselves up for a big hurt with their decision to only sell Mustangs and huge SUV/Pickups in the US from now on... People are going to need less expensive/ economy cars of they'll have money for cars at all.


Construction and Real Estate
These guys are fucked... big time... (Home Depot and Lowe's... yeah Do It Yourself-ers and small time contractors are not going to be upgrading their shit anytime soon)


Banks... Also brokerages, hedge funds, and other financial institutions

Manafucked (Thank the Ferret for that one)... This will require a lot of research... Some may have actually learned their lessons from last time... doubt it, but if you can find the ones who haven't, eat their fucking lunch and smile 😊


Regarding Amazon, Netflix, Google, Facebook, and other social media

It's a mixed bag and not obvious... They may take a hit, maybe even a huge hit, but they have a lot going for them so it's not certain and I wouldn't bet against them if you've got limited funds for speculation.

Facebook, Twitter, whatever... It doesn't cost the average consumer anything extra to use social media, if it's free they'll be on it... maybe even more because they've got nothing else to do...

Netflix I'm hearing that they are over leveraged and over spending on their original content, but their subscriptions aren't that expensive and usage may even go up as people look for escape in entertainment...

Big budget Video Games and consoles are more expensive, but don't underestimate the power of escapism in shitty circumstances...

Amazon: a retailer in an environment where customers have no money is not a place where you want to be... however, with brick and mortar stores already on the verge of extinction they may very well be the last ones standing... them and fucking Walmart...


Speaking of which, companies who I'm pretty sure will do well...

Companies who are already recognized as catering to "Broke As Fuck" as a target demographic...

McDonalds , Walmart (although with so much of their cheap plastic crap coming from China, who knows how the Trade Wars will affect them), Dollar Stores...

Mobile Games... especially free to play...


All this will need research and lot of it... how companies fared during the last crisis, and whether or not they've adapted or taken precautions...