Economy

I think the net effect of the immigration crackdown and the tariff taxes will be supply chain disruption and supply shock. The last significant supply shock was the 2020 Covid crisis. But there the Feds (Biden and Fed Reserve) really stimulated the economy to keep spending going to avoid a deep recession. That is not available now unless the Republicons in Congress tax the rich. They have boxed themselves into a squeeze with no wiggle room if the Scenario is not Rosy.

Prior to that the big supply shocks were the OPEC embargos of 73 and 79. That led to stagflation: less supply so prices go up, but less supply also means no room for growth meaning stagnation.

But the supply shock won't be big enough for rationing. There may be spot shortage of vegetables, berries and fruit here and there, but not enough to require rationing.