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Hillary Clinton

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CajunBlazer

(5,648 posts)
Thu Jul 7, 2016, 01:57 AM Jul 2016

The fallacy that the very liberal Democrats are the base of the Party [View all]

The media sometimes refers to those Democrats and Independents who supported Bernie Sanders in the primaries as the base of the Democratic party. We are also used to hearing those on DU who are far left or very liberal state make the same claim.

All of these people are operating under a delusion. Some people seem to be allergic to facts, but bare with me for a bit.

A recent Gallop showed the following following results:

Of all Americans, 38% self identify as conservative, 34% self identify as moderate and only 24% identify as liberal, In addition that 24% was the highest percentage identifying as liberal in Gallop annual polls in recent memory. We (all liberals) are in the minority in this country folks. And remember, people who self identify as very liberal are subset of that 24% so comprise they are even a smaller percentage of all Americans.

The same poll also has these finding: Among Democratic Party members the percentages broke down in this manner: 19% self identify as conservative, 34% self identify as moderate and 44% identify as liberal. When you add to those identify moderates and those who identify as conservatives, together they make up 53% of members of the Democratic Party. With liberals at 44%, liberals don't even make up the majority of the our Party and again, remember those self identifying as very liberal are a subset of the 44%.

Here is the link to the results of that poll: http://www.gallup.com/poll/180452/liberals-record-trail-conservatives.aspx

If you have doubts about a single poll, be assured many other polls had very similar results. The results of three polls showed that the percentage of all Americans self identifying as liberals grew from 23% in 20014 to 25% in 2015.
Link: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/08/wsj-more-americans-self-identifying-as-liberal/

On request I will post the links to several other polls with very similar results, but let's explore how many people self identify as very liberal - those sometimes referred to as "the base of the Democratic Party": Those self identifying as very liberal were unsurprisingly Bernie Sander's biggest supporters in the primaries, but Edison Research data of voters in the primaries showed that 36 percentage of voters in the Democratic primaries identified themselves as somewhat liberal and only 26% identified as very liberal. Most of the results identified as moderates.

Link: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-have-gotten-more-liberal-since-2008-but-not-enough-to-nominate-sanders/

Now 26% is decent percentage, but its only a little over 1/4 of Democratic primary voters. And we know from experience that a good number of those very liberal voters were not Democrats; they were independents voting for Bernie Sanders. Folks, fewer than 1/4 of the Democratic voters in the primary cannot be considered the base of the Democratic Party.

And remember we are talking about only Democratic voters here. We know that Democrats and Democratic leaning independents make up only about 45% of the American electorate. If 26% of those voters identify as very liberal, we can conclude that only 11.7% of the American electorate identify as very liberal.

So if you identify as very liberal - and many on DU obviously do, you are a small minority of Democrats and Democratic leaning independents and a tiny minority of the overall American electorate. Think of that the next time you are tempted to brag about how important your voting block is.



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Thanks for the analysis CajunBlazer. n/t fleabiscuit Jul 2016 #1
I have always thought BlueMTexpat Jul 2016 #2
"since April 2016" Do you mean around the time of the Vatican Trip? Her Sister Jul 2016 #7
It was the first time BlueMTexpat Jul 2016 #11
Ah yes, April 2nd! Her Sister Jul 2016 #20
I am very liberal, but I also understand real-world politics OKNancy Jul 2016 #3
Good post, I agree! realmirage Jul 2016 #25
It has less to do with numbers and everything to do with behavior. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #4
Exactly. Nt BainsBane Jul 2016 #5
^^^This!!! DemonGoddess Jul 2016 #6
HRC won the base! Her Sister Jul 2016 #8
Yes, she did! SharonClark Jul 2016 #19
Exactly! Il_Coniglietto Jul 2016 #10
I would like to think I am part of the base of the Party CajunBlazer Jul 2016 #14
Admittedly, I generalized a bit. But again, it's based on behavior most of all. BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #15
I mostly agree CajunBlazer Jul 2016 #18
Exactly right. I've only missed a primary in my 48 years of voting. LiberalFighter Jul 2016 #23
Is very liberal the same as am only interested in economic issues? Her Sister Jul 2016 #9
The biggest difference between the two candidates was that one didnt promise her supporters a payout BobbyDrake Jul 2016 #13
I agree. And it is the way I feel about myself too. LiberalFighter Jul 2016 #24
Of course, you only have to remember who lead the movement CajunBlazer Jul 2016 #16
Most countries that Bernie used as examples for his ideas have more homogeneous populations. Her Sister Jul 2016 #21
The theory isn't "wrong" per se. forjusticethunders Jul 2016 #22
When the going gets weird... yallerdawg Jul 2016 #12
So...when they scream against 3rd way DemonGoddess Jul 2016 #17
This is brilliant.. Mahalo, Cajun! Cha Jul 2016 #26
CajunBlazer i'd like to get your take on this loooooong article related to some of your points Her Sister Jul 2016 #27
Excellent post! Thank you. AgadorSparticus Jul 2016 #28
Paragraph two, sentence one, all nine words ... YES! Exactly! (Thank you!) NurseJackie Jul 2016 #29
lol! Her Sister Jul 2016 #30
I am creon Jul 2016 #31
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