Barack Obama

I do have a degree in math and I also know how to interpret graphs.

First the graph is comparing global leading indicators instead of US indicators.

Second, notice how there is an upward bounce between the February 13 and March 13 data points. Then in April 13 the data point is at about 0.19% growth. If the May 13 figure is also at 0.19%, then the data point would be on straight line upwards from April 13 and on the x-axis. If the following months if the figures remain at 0.19% growth then the data points would cluster at 0.19 on the x-axis. The red curved line merely smooths out the curve, but is not predictive that GLI will become negative (crossing the y-axis). From a mathematical perspective, the y-axis merely represents the derivative of the change in growth (x-axis).

The graph does measure the change that occurred in the time period stated, but I wouldn't short any stock picks just because the plot is made to resemble a circle. If you extend the chart out over a larger period of time, it would most likely resemble a warped bed-spring coil that has been hammered in certain spots.

Yes, growth has slowed down in 2013. However, the jury is definitely still out as to whether we are going to see the GLI actually contract (meaning a recession).