Is This the Year Texas Republicans Finally Blow It In the Senate? [View all]

If you were worried that Texas politics was getting a little boring, worry no more: The upcoming Republican Senate primary between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is here to inject a full dose of chaos, betrayal, biblical divorce filings, and party-wide panic.

This race has everything: A four-term U.S. senator trying to fend off a scandal-slicked attorney general. Big-money super PACs unloading cash like it’s an oil boom. And the GOP’s favorite kingmaker, Donald Trump, refusing to pick a side just yet — because apparently even he wants to watch the drama unfold before weighing in.

Let’s start with the basics. Cornyn has raised nearly $4 million this quarter and has $8.5 million in cash on hand. He’s got a super PAC that’s hauled in $11 million and a consultant team stacked with senior Trump advisers.

By comparison, Paxton raised $2.9 million in the latest quarter, while a pro-Paxton super PAC took in $1.85 million. Currently, Paxton’s campaign has $2.5 million on hand.

So, financially speaking, Cornyn is loaded and battle-ready.

But here’s the kicker: He’s still trailing Paxton. By 15 points. That’s not a polling gap, that’s a canyon.

And in a plot twist that probably made Cornyn’s campaign staff spit out their coffee, those same polls show that while Paxton is leading in the primary, he’s losing to a generic Democrat in the general election. Meanwhile, Cornyn — establishment, suit-and-tie Cornyn — actually beats the Democrat by seven points.

https://thebarbedwire.com/2025/07/18/texas-senate-republican-primary-cornyn-paxton/