El Nino is over -- with La Nina expected soon. What that means for California weather: [View all]

Last edited Thu Jun 13, 2024, 02:50 PM - Edit history (1)

San Francisco Chronicle / 6-13-24

The Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which are warmer-than-average during El Niño, have cooled to “neutral,” or near-normal temperatures. Sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to drop in the coming months, with a 65% chance of La Niña developing by the period from July to September and lasting through the winter.

SNIP

Forecasters are expecting La Niña to develop during the period from July to September, with an over 80% chance of continuing through the winter. There is also a 27% chance that this La Niña could be strong from November to January, with sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit below average.

La Niña is associated with drier-than-average winter weather across the lower tier of the United States, including Central and Southern California, especially during stronger events. The phenomenon typically brings wetter-than-normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest, which can bleed down into the northern reaches of California.

While this is still many months out, the Climate Prediction Center forecast for this winter calls for drier-than-average conditions for California, south of around the Bay Area.

Link (probable paywall): https://www.sfchronicle.com/weather/article/california-el-nino-enso-neutral-19509531.php