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tRump tariff taxes on US citizens are hurting his economy. Ten percent higher tariffs than 50 %, going to 60% will hurt US industry more than he realizes. Ford Motors was already concerned that a fire at a US aluminum producer is going to pressure Ford's inputs. The economic genius of the stable doesn't realize that raising 10% doesn't damage imports by 10%. The response curve is very steep above 25% tariffs.Ten percent extra tariffs does bigger economic damage than 10% because it is severe enough that more companies fold and everything gets harder to source and more expensive than 10% more.

CUSMA (USCMA) shields something like 84% of US-Canada trade. If tRump lets it lapse or cuts that off, then Carney can bring the hammer down on electricity and oil. Premier Ford is ready to shut off electricity, which would drive US rates through the roof on top of surging demand for data centres.

Shutting off oil would hurt Canadian unity and Alberta's Steele would exploit that chaos and Poilievre might not be able to resist either. Shutting off either or both would really hurt a limping Canadian economy and should not be deployed for feel-good vibes from virtual facial violence.

tRump has the CUSMA hammer and Carney has the oil-electricity hammer. Both are reluctant to use them, for good reasons on both sides.