tRump plays the 30 second Tik Tok game.
Yes, a poke in the nose would be momentarily satisfying, but one thing that tRump really respects is tough negotiators. Which is why he constantly calls Canadians tough negotiators. I think time is on Canada's side, partly because China is also being a tough negotiator. tRump is frustrated, hence the temper tantrums.
Time seems to be needed for the economic decline I expected to begin five months ago. A confluence of factors is keeping the US economy balanced on a knife's edge. Everything has to go right and has so far gone right. But the balance depends on too many things, and when his economy slips he will be eager for a deal with Canada.
US unemployment is not higher because companies are in a no-fire mode due to the uncertainty of tRump policy. It is not lower because of all the gICEstapo turmoil. US GDP is not lower because AI capex is holding it above water. The stock market has not dramatically declined because of the AI capex and the promise of AI. That promise will not be fulfilled until the next AI summer. This round is fulfilling the promises of the last AI summer. Stock valuations are at very high levels relative to earnings and are based on future earnings that will continue to materialize until they don't.
Inflation is stubborn, but barely contained. Tariff disruption has been reduced because of the on-again off-again nature of TACO, so the effect has been smeared out and has not been the sudden shock that was anticipated. Smeared not by design, but by orange incompetence.
Inbound US travel is down. Inbound university education dollars and rents are down. Agricultural production is down and prices are not down. House construction and new house prices have been on the low end of stable because of higher costs (including labour shortages) at the same time as economic uncertainty. The tRump government shutdown bites more each day and those wounds won't disappear the day it stops.
Time is on the side of Canada and China as US midterms approach.
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