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Bernardo de La Paz

(57,243 posts)

28. My view, combing ADP and this report: resilience is fraying at the edges

Fri Jun 6, 2025, 10:43 AM

Jun 6

The labour market has been relatively resilient but it is a combination of less hiring and more stay-put on the part of employees.

The back-looking downward revisions are more believable (more data, more consideration) than the current numbers (quicker but less data). ADP showed a bit of a tick down, but still resilient.

Consider the background when looking forward. Are there many drivers for job growth? Maybe some deregulation, but that is unlikely to affect jobs until 2026. Maybe a rate cut by the Fed, but that is looking more distant, though I expect now there will be several in 2026.

Are there many drivers for job loss? Tariff taxes, tariff uncertainty, legislation uncertainty, increasing deficits, top-heavy stock market overweighted to "magnificent 7" high tech stocks, looming government "deferred resignations" kicking in come September, tourism declines kicking in this summer, supply shortages possible (rare earth magnets), ....

Where did jobs grow and decline in the report? Healthcare and "hospitality" grew. It seems there are lots of restaurants opening. That's before the summer tourism season which is not looking healthy.

Where did jobs decline? Manufacturing down 8,000 and a couple other key sectors down.

Fraying at the edges, with little positive forward-looking.

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2% [View all] BumRushDaShow Jun 6 OP

Does anyone believe any government stats right now? mdbl Jun 6 #1

You are absolutely correct, mdbl. pdxflyboy Jun 6 #2

I'll never believe anything these wankers say RoadRunner Jun 6 #5

Understandable, but these numbers are definitely legitimate. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #7

These numbers? Yes. I worked on this program for 30+ years. I know people who still work on the program Wiz Imp Jun 6 #6

Good to know. yardwork Jun 6 #11

So we are relying on the good will of people who are most definitely not afraid of losing their job? travelingthrulife Jun 6 #14

I guarantee you the people I know will resign before falsifying numbers. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #18

I Would Agree, But With A Word Of Caution DallasNE Jun 6 #41

Good Point. And those smaller sample sizes or lower response rates will certainly impact some BLS surveys. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #42

I call bullsh*t as well... ultralite001 Jun 6 #13

I for one have total confidence in our Dear Leader's Ministry of Truth. nt Xipe Totec Jun 6 #17

It may be more than expected, but that is not a good number. Anything under 150k is bad. everyonematters Jun 6 #3

Yep.... Hugin Jun 6 #9

True Rebl2 Jun 6 #27

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Jun 6 #4

JFC people, this is a +44,000 report, that is, with the 95,000 downward revisions of the previous 2 months, there are. progree Jun 6 #8

This is a bad report Johnny2X2X Jun 6 #10

You did actually look at the graph. n/t Igel Jun 6 #44

This is the right way to look at it WSHazel Jun 6 #12

That's probably the closest that it's gotten to ADP's numbers BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #21

Private non-farm employment: ADP: +37,000, BLS: +140,000 progree Jun 6 #24

I remembered it from the OP Wednesday BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #25

One must always read to the end of the release to get the complete accurate picture of the new month's report. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #15

That is less job growth than April. The economy is slowing. OrlandoDem2 Jun 6 #16

Kick dalton99a Jun 6 #19

BFD!! InAbLuEsTaTe Jun 6 #20

Another solid report. America has more going for it than the whims of Donald Trump mathematic Jun 6 #22

LINKS to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. Coming soon: The labor force dropped by 625k, Employed down by 695k progree Jun 6 #23

Household Survey: Employed dropped by 696k, Labor force dropped by 625k, LFPR from 62.6% to 62.4% progree Jun 6 #26

My view, combing ADP and this report: resilience is fraying at the edges Bernardo de La Paz Jun 6 #28

I neglected the stimulus effect of "tax cuts" in the BBB, which are oversold, not needed, and costly Bernardo de La Paz Jun 6 #37

Investors are already looking to July's jobs report -- or even August's - Hamza Shaban, Yahoo Finance progree Jun 6 #29

Oopsie. The graph in the OP says, "2025 May 177k" progree Jun 6 #30

They did finally fix that and I updated the OP! BumRushDaShow Jun 6 #35

Is the report that Trump stopped from being released Owens Jun 6 #31

No, this jobs report was released on the normal first Friday schedule. The one you may be thinking of is a farm trade progree Jun 6 #32

He'll probably revise it with a Sharpie. benpollard Jun 6 #33

Gawd....the effects of these tariffs (when all are implemented unless TACO) will be months and months from now Bengus81 Jun 6 #34

The jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted /nt progree Jun 6 #36

True and with a best guess,same as in late fall with Christmas hiring. Bengus81 Jun 6 #38

You're right about a big seasonal upsurge this time of the year. +726k progree Jun 6 #39

A Word Of Caution DallasNE Jun 6 #40

NOT TRUE. Wiz Imp Jun 6 #43