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9. Medicare will come sooner than that
Wed Jul 30, 2025, 04:04 PM
Jul 30

There is no provision of that bill that changes Medicare. But the deficit spending in that bill will trigger automatic spending cuts under the PayGo Act. Social Security is exempted from those paygo cuts (and defense, I think) but Medicare is not. When the new fiscal year hits Oct 1st and that new budget kicks in, there will be automatic cuts.

As far as SS goes, I'm expecting the DOGE changes to make the system at least partially dysfunctional. The frustration will push a good number of those that survive the DOGE cuts to quit on their own. Breaking SS will be the excuse for them to say "see, government screws up everything, we need to privatize SS".

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