Let's talk about Trump giving in to Iran before the talks restart.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump giving into Iran before the talks restart.

After the Trump administration overplayed its hand during the last mediated talks with Iran in Pakistan, it launched a blockade of a blockade and saber rattled some more. Trump seems to have started to come to terms with the fact that well, he doesn't have the cards he thought he did. If you think back to Iran's initially stated positions for talks to proceed, putting a stop to the fighting was 0.1. When we went over them on the second channel, I'll put the link below, we talked about how Iran specifically wanted the fighting to stop in Lebanon. Using their leverage to get Trump to exert pressure on Israel to stop the fighting there was seen as a reach and viewed as a non-starter.

Well, Trump announced the US had brokered a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Now, it's not a full end to the fighting, and honestly, it doesn't look like the stage is set for anything other than a brief break, but because all sides are claiming it as a win, there's a decent chance something more long-term could come out of it. But right now, it certainly seems like Iran got a ceasefire for one of its non-state actors out of the US.

I want to stop here and say ceasefires are good. I feel like that shouldn't need to be verbalized, but here we are. Right now, turning down the temperature anywhere in the region is going to help everywhere in the region and you know slow the loss of people. These are all good things. The way this ceasefire was reached however will strengthen Iran immeasurably.

This is happening after the administration talked tough and said things like, "we'll negotiate with bombs" and tried to act like they weren't negotiating anymore. Because Trump likes to engage in diplomacy and trash talking on social media like a gossipy teenage girl, the entire world knows the rough state of negotiations. Every non-state actor in the world just watched Iran slap the US across the face and say, "go stop this fighting and do what you're told or you're too pathetic and weak to even deal with" and then the US did. Trump did exactly what he was ordered to. He got the ceasefire as instructed by Tehran.

All of the Iran aligned non-state actors just saw evidence that Iran will go to bat for them against the US and win. That's not just going to increase their loyalty, it will continue the trend of new non-state actors looking to Tehran for assistance. The way Trump handled this is just handing Tehran cards and power.

Keep in mind this isn't part of the negotiations with Iran directly. This is Iran forcing Mr. Art of the Deal to do something just to get back to the table with them. He gave them something incredibly valuable for nothing. Now that they've seen how desperate Trump is, they'll probably be even more hardline during the next round of talks.

Long story short, too late. The ceasefire in Lebanon is a welcome development, and it really is a good thing. But because it's amateur hour or maybe happy hour at the White House, the US attempts to permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz are strengthening Iran while weakening the United States on the world stage. The US has even given up on its demand for a permanent halt to enrichment. Trump has reshaped his claimed goals for this multiple times and still can't achieve them.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.