https://www.democraticunderground.com/123212209

Melissa has a circular, 10-n-mi-wide eye surrounded by a symmetric
ring of very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg
C. Radar data from Jamaica suggests that a secondary outer eyewall
may have formed, which could signal that an eyewall replacement
cycle is underway. The last couple of overnight center fixes by the
Air Force Hurricane Hunters revealed 700-mb height falls within the
eye, and dropsonde data indicated the central pressure had fallen to
around 901 mb. A standard reduction of the peak 700-mb flight-level
winds from that mission (165 kt) supports an initial intensity of
150 kt. Conditions are deteriorating across Jamaica, where heavy
rainfall and tropical storm conditions have spread across the
island. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate the hurricane again this morning.

Melissa is moving slowly north-northeastward (025/4 kt). Over the
next several days, the hurricane is expected to accelerate to the
northeast within the flow ahead of an amplifying trough over the
southeastern U.S. This steering flow will bring the core of Melissa
across Jamaica today, over eastern Cuba early Wednesday, and across
the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Then, the
hurricane is forecast to pass near Bermuda Thursday night or early
Friday. Overall, the near-term NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one. At 72-120 h, the official forecast was adjusted to
the left of the previous prediction based on the latest multi-model
consensus aids and Google DeepMind ensemble guidance.

Near-term intensity fluctuations are possible this morning and will
likely be driven by internal dynamic processes like eyewall
replacement cycles. Regardless, Melissa will reach Jamaica as an
extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 h. While land
interaction with Jamaica and eastern Cuba is expected to cause some
weakening, Melissa is still forecast to pass over portions of the
Bahamas as a strong hurricane on Wednesday. Increasing westerly
shear is likely to impact Melissa later this week while the
hurricane accelerates toward higher latitudes. As a result, the
hurricane is forecast to have a broader and asymmetric wind field
when it passes near Bermuda later this week. Some minor upward
adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast during the
middle portion of the period in agreement with the latest HCCA
and GDMI aids. Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding,
landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today,
causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is
possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern
coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected
through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss
of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti,
extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical
storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 17.2N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.7W 145 KT 165 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 28.1N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 32.4N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 43.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA APPROACHING
WESTERN JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON
THE ISLAND TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/281452.shtml

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province
of Camaguey.

The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
(snip)

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...MELISSA'S EYE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...STAY IN YOUR SHELTER...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will
quickly, and rapidly increase on the other side of the eye.
Residents should remain in place through the passage of these
life-threatening conditions. To protect yourself from wind, the
best thing you can do is put as many walls as possible between you
and the outside. An interior room without windows, ideally one where
you can also avoid falling trees, is the safest place you can be in
a building. You can cover yourself with a mattress and wear a
helmet for added protection.

The next update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC), or as
needed for landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/281458.shtml

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA CROSSING WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...899 MB...26.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
(snip)

Maximum sustained winds are now near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued weakening is expected while the
center is over Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach
southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it
will still be a strong hurricane when it moves across the
southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).
(snip)

WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa. Total structural failure
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Do not venture out
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the
eyewall.
(snip)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/281900.shtml?

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
300 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
[
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN
JAMAICA...
...REMAIN SHELTERED IN YOUR SAFE PLACE...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! Do
not leave your shelter as the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly
increase on the other side of the eye. Residents should not leave
their shelter and should remain in place through the passage of
these life-threatening conditions.
(snip)

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 77.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.75 INCHES

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
400 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE ONGOING IN
JAMAICA...
...MELISSA REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER
NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION!
Residents should not leave their shelter and should remain in place
through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. To protect
yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as many walls
as possible between you and the outside. An interior room without
windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, is the
safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself with a
mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM
EDT (2100 UTC). This is the last scheduled position update.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN
JAMAICA...
...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
(snip)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282052.shtml

The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with
maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure
near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over
the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some
warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the
initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt.
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled
to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information
on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while
Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded
in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to
determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic
hurricanes.

The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with
an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this
should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight
or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the
northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday
night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly
northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope
has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h
since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this
time is also shifted a little to the north and west.

While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will
probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due
to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level
wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the
intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before
Melissa reaches Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual
weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane
strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model
guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical
cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will
continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash
flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight
with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication
outages, and isolated communities.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern
portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In
Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely.
Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and
follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane
Watch is now in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 18.5N 77.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 28.9N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 33.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 39.0N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 48.4N 42.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 54.8N 25.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...POWERFUL MELISSA MOVING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
(snip)
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later this evening, and a faster
motion in that direction is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over
eastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across
the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach
Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane when it moves across Cuba, the Bahamas, and near
Bermuda.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: The damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across
Jamaica, but it is advised to remain in a safe shelter until
sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba
later tonight through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches
across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24
inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over
mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and
numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected
over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash
flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3
inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday
night.

Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is
expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40
inches possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay,
there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground
level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should
subside later tonight.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba through early Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal
flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of
eastern Cuba.

Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos Islands overnight, and Bermuda later this week. Please
consult products from your local weather office.