https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/270851.shtml?

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

An ongoing Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
measuring progressively higher winds and lower central pressures
during each of its passes through Melissa's eye. On the third and
final pass, the crew measured a peak flight-level wind of 154 kt and
a central pressure of 917 mb. This flight-level wind reduces to
about 140 kt, making Melissa a category 5 hurricane. The
hurricane's eye is 10 n mi wide with a temperature of 20 degrees
Celsius, while the surrounding convection has cloud top temperatures
as cold as -86 degrees Celsius.

Melissa appears to be gaining some latitude again, but the 12-hour
average motion is westward (275 degrees) at 3 kt. A painstakingly
slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the
next 24 hours, and Melissa is forecast to make landfall on the
south coast of Jamaica Tuesday morning and emerge off the north
coast by Tuesday afternoon. A trough moving across the
southeastern United States is then expected to cause Melissa to
turn northeastward and accelerate, crossing southeastern Cuba and
the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then
reaching the vicinity of Bermuda Thursday night. The part of the
forecast track while Melissa is over the western Atlantic has been
adjusted a bit westward, following the latest Google DeepMind and
European model solutions.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24
hours while Melissa is south of Jamaica over waters of high oceanic
heat content and in an environment of relatively low wind shear.
Fluctuations in intensity are also possible during this period due
to internal dynamics related to eyewall replacements, which are
generally difficult to forecast. There's really no practical
difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5
intensity, since both categories can produce catastrophic wind
damage. In addition, winds in the mountains of Jamaica are likely
to be higher than the winds at sea level, and are likely to add to
the seriousness of the situation. Although interaction with
Jamaica will lead to some weakening, Melissa is expected to reach
southeastern Cuba as a major hurricane, and will also move across
the southeastern Bahamas and be near Bermuda as a hurricane. Some
of the guidance shows a flatlining of the intensity while Melissa
is moving over the southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast has
been bumped up during that time accordingly.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the
mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive
infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and
damaging waves are expected along the southern coast through
Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA...
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL
WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
(snip)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/271448.shtml?

(snip)
Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite
imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded
in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The
hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the
eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the
Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central
pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best
estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge
north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should
cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at
a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the
mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the
forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will
be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross
eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near
or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After
that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday
night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the
previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa
significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa
making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both
categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica,
a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear
should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to
be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic,
stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa
is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the
previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have
the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher
elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in
extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and
communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening
storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast
through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
(snip)

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM
SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
(snip)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/271733.shtml

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/272042.shtml?

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

A few hours ago, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft showed that the central pressure in Melissa had fallen to
near 906 mb. The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In
addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the
northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the
time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been
little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has
weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend
of the surface wind estimates mentioned above. NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will again investigate Melissa
during the next few hours.

Melissa is starting its northward turn, and the initial motion is
now northwestward or 315/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa
continues to weaken as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves
eastward through the southeastern United States into the
southwestern Atlantic. This should cause the hurricane to turn
northward during the next 6-12 h or so at a continued slow forward
speed. After 18 h or so, Melissa should turn northeastward with
a slight increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly
flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. A continued
northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed
is expected from 36 h through the end of the forecast period. On
the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over
Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday
night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone
could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The track
guidance envelope has nudged a little to the west and north since
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little
to the west and north of the previous track.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC). However, the previous aircraft data showed
no evidence that an ERC had started, and it is possible that the
upcoming aircraft may find Melissa is stronger than 150 kt.
Regardless, even with an ERC it is unlikely that Melissa will
weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no
practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5
intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage.
After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and
increasing southwesterly shear should cause weakening, although
Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches
Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more
substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become
extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts
with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic. The new
intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and
again follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter and do not venture
outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive
winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher
elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged
power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the
southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are
anticipated through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
to begin tonight. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds
are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should
be rushed to completion.

4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane
conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm
surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.7N 78.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.8W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0600Z 19.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 24.3N 72.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 27.8N 69.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 44.7N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING
WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
(snip)