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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/260533.shtmlHurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...MELISSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
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nitpicked
(1,517 posts)Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...MELISSA NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)(snip)
Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid
intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the
past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last
pass of an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the
eye just before 1 AM EDT indicated that maximum winds had increased
to 105 kt and the pressure had fallen to 958 mb. The eye has been
clearing out and warming since that time in infrared satellite
imagery, with the Dvorak data-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB up to
T6.0/115 kt at 2 AM EDT. The intensity is estimated to be 120 kt at
the time of this advisory based on the latest AiDT and DPRINT
estimates.
The center had taken a west-southwestward jog over the past 12
hours, but more recent frames of satellite images suggest it is now
moving westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt. There is very little change
in the forecast reasoning or the forecast track itself. Over the
next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to make a slow westward to
north-northeastward recurvature just to the south of Jamaica, likely
reaching the island's southern coast Tuesday morning. An
acceleration toward the northeast is expected after 48 hours when
Melissa is picked up by a trough moving off the southeast coast of
the United States, and this motion should bring the center across
southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, across the
southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and then reaching the
vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.
It's assumed that the current period of rapid intensification will
continue, and Melissa could reach category 5 intensity by tonight.
An eyewall replacement would be likely to occur at some point over
the next couple of days, which would cause a decrease or at least
fluctuations in Melissa's intensity after 24 hours. Regardless,
Melissa is forecast to reach Jamaica as a category 4 hurricane,
which will only compound any damages caused by heavy rainfall and
flooding over the next 2 days. Melissa is likely to weaken a
little during its passage across Jamaica, but intensity guidance
suggests that it will likely still be a major hurricane when it
reaches southeastern Cuba late Tuesday and the southeastern Bahamas
on Wednesday. Stronger shear should cause the storm to weaken
below major hurricane strength on days 4 and 5 while over the
western Atlantic.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
today and on Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds
arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural
damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation
of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely
along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday
morning.
2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek,
likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation
of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the
Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western
Haiti on Tuesday.
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce
catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern
portions of the country.
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:
Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the
middle of the week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in
effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...MAJOR HURRICANE MELISSA CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)After rapidly intensifying over the past day or so, NOAA-P3 aircraft
data indicates that Melissa's intensity has leveled off this
morning. Melissa remains a very formidable hurricane on satellite
imagery, with a clearing eye quite evident on morning visible
imagery, and the eye temperature has warmed to +15-20C. Meanwhile
the eyewall convection continues to remain robust with cloud tops as
low as -75 to -80C encircling the core. With that said, the eye
presentation from the Kingston, Jamaica radar is not as pristine,
with the eyewall occasionally open on the east side, and some
evidence of concentric bands forming off and on. Zooming out a bit,
there still remains some evidence of light to moderate westerly
shear undercutting the expanding storm outflow, and Melissa’s
primarily rainbands are distributed mostly on the eastern side of
the circulation. NOAA-P3 aircraft data this morning had a peak 700-
mb flight level wind of 120 kt, and Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) wind
retrievals were up to 129 kt at 0.5 km, and 129 kt in the 500 m
average of a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall. While this
data would support a somewhat lower intensity, the subjective and
objective satellite based intensity estimates are mostly higher,
ranging from 115 to 140 kt. The initial intensity will be held at
120 kt, on the lower end of those estimates, and this value could be
a little generous based on the aircraft data.
The major hurricane is moving westward this morning, from aircraft
fixes estimated at 270/3 kt. This motion is expected to continue for
the next 24-36 h as a narrow mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa
imparts the majority of the steering. Thereafter, a short-wave
trough moving into the southeastern United States is expected to
erode this ridge, allowing Melissa to turn sharply to the northeast,
with gradual acceleration. On the forecast track, Melissa's core
is expected to be near the Jamaica coastline by Tuesday morning,
moving across the island and then approaching and moving over
eastern Cuba by Tuesday night. While the track guidance has become
tightly clustered over the first 24-48 hours, the along-track spread
starts to increase significantly after that time period, with Google
DeepMind ensemble solutions on Wednesday morning ranging from
between Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the Caribbean Sea, over eastern
Cuba, or in the Southwestern Atlantic near the Southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Cacaos Islands. The latest NHC track forecast was
nudged just a little westward of the prior track, once again
blending the reliable track aids HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).
It is unclear if the current pause in Melissa's intensification is
temporary. While there have not been obvious indications of a
secondary eyewall formation yet, there are some concentric
reflectivity bands appearing on both Jamaica and NOAA-P3 TDR data
occasionally, though the inner eyewall remains strong. Some of the
guidance this morning has actually increased from yesterday at this
time, and notably both the HAFS-A/B explicitly forecast a Category 5
hurricane shortly before they show landfall in Jamaica. The latest
NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a peak intensity of 140
kt. However, inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles
could occur at any time. Regardless, Melissa is forecast to reach
Jamaica as an upper-end category 4 hurricane, which will only
exacerbate any damages caused by heavy rainfall and flooding over
the next 2 days. Melissa will likely weaken some as it traverses
over the higher terrain of Jamaica, but it is still forecast to be a
major hurricane when it subsequently moves over eastern Cuba in
60-72 hours. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear should
cause gradual weakening, but Melissa could still be near hurricane
intensity when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda in about 5
days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the high end of the
intensity guidance, but not far off the GDMI, and HAFS-A/B intensity
aids.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING MAJOR
HURRICANE MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. The
government of Cuba has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cuban province of Las Tunas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Cuban province of Las Tunas
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)(snip)
After an earlier pause in intensification, this afternoon's Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found Melissa intensifying
again. The minimum pressure has fallen 12 mb from this morning
NOAA-P3 mission, with the last dropsonde indicating a minimum
pressure of 941 mb, and the plane reported a shrinking eyewall down
to 6 n mi in diameter. In addition to the low pressure, the
satellite presentation of Melissa remains very impressive, with
1-minute visible satellite images from a GOES-19 meso-sector showing
a very clear eye with a stadium effect. The eye temperature on water
vapor imagery has continued to warm, while the thick ring of eyewall
cloud tops remains between -75 to -80 C around the eye. The
presentation of Melissa on radar reflectivity from Kingston, Jamaica
has also improved, though there still appear to be hints of a moat
forming around the inner eyewall, though without an obvious
secondary eyewall formation yet. Subjective Dvorak CI-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB were T7.0/140 kt, with objective satellite
estimates between 132-143 kt. However, Melissa's peak winds from the
last couple of recon missions have been lagging the satellite-based
estimates. The last fix had peak 700 mb flight level winds of only
129 kt, but a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall also reported
a 500 m layer average of 142 kt, with an earlier dropsonde in the NE
eyewall with a surface wind gust of 131 kt. This data is enough to
raise the maximum sustained winds of 125 kt, and given the satellite
presentation, this could be conservative.
Melissa continues to move slowly westward, estimated at 270/4 kt.
The hurricane has been moving a little faster to the west today, and
this motion will likely continue for another 12-18 hours while the
narrow mid-level ridge to the north remains in place. Soon, a
short-wave trough will be moving into the SE United States, and this
feature should create a weakness that Melissa will turn
sharply northeast into, as it gradually accelerates. The track
guidance has shifted a little westward again this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast was nudged a little west again, but still shows
landfall on Tuesday morning along the south coast of Jamaica. There
remain some timing differences thereafter, but a second landfall is
anticipated along the southeastern Cuba coast by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday morning. As Melissa then accelerates into the
southwestern Atlantic, it will move through the Bahamas and
potentially approach Bermuda by the day 4-5 time frame, with a
reinforcing trough helping to kick it farther out to sea. The latest
NHC track forecast is a little west in the first 24-60 h, but falls
back near the previous forecast track thereafter. The track is
roughly a blend of the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI).
Now that Melissa is intensifying again, it seems more clear that the
earlier pause in intensification was a temporary oscillation, and
the hurricane now appears poised to intensify more in the
short-term. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a little more
intensification in 12 h, but continues to show a peak intensity of
140 kt, which is supported by HAFS-B which shows landfall of Melissa
as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The Google DeepMind ensemble
members also continue to indicate this peak, with now 48/50 members
reaching this lofty intensity. However, inner-core processes like
ERCs could occur at any time, and the current small eye of Melissa
likely suggests an ERC could begin in the next 24 hours or so,
though it is very difficult to predict these occurrences with much
skill. After landfall in Jamaica, Melissa will likely weaken some
due to the interaction with that Island's high terrain, but it is
still expected to be a major hurricane when crossing the Cuba
coastline on Tuesday night. After emerging into the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean, increasing vertical wind shear should continue
gradual weakening through the end of the forecast, with the
possibility that Melissa could start extratropical transition by day
5. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the high side of
the guidance, but falls closer to the HCCA and IVCN aids towards the
end of the forecast period.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Although winds have temporarily
decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.
3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.
4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches
will likely be required early Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,517 posts)Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
(snip)
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Melissa is moving
toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion
is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast
on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa
is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday, across
southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern
Bahamas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional intensification is forecast over
the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa
is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when making landfall
in Jamaica.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 933 mb (27.55 inches).