Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumPutin Now Fears THIS Most: Ukraine's Just Moved INSIDE Russia - Jason Jay Smart
Command begins to crack when shortages stop being separate problems and start reinforcing each other across the entire war machine. A fuel problem becomes a logistics problem, a logistics problem becomes a front line problem, and a front line problem becomes a political problem for the Kremlin. Russia can still claim control, but every new demand on the system exposes another weakness Putin cannot easily repair.
Putins real danger now is whether he can still control a war that demands more than Russia can reliably provide. When soldiers run short, air defense thins out, costs rise, and elites begin doubting the outcome, the regime loses the image it depends on most. Under that pressure, the front can break, command can crack, and Putin can be left with no way out.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Putin Faces Imminent Economic Ruin
02:38 - Broke Empire: Putin's Overstretched Army Faces Defeat
04:10 - Locked Cockpit: Passengers Scream as Russia Crashes
06:53 - Ballot Rebellion: Russians Reject Putin's Political Party
07:56 - Bunker Captive: Body Doubles Cannot Save Putin
08:31 - Refinery Swarms: Ukraine Overwhelms Russia's Air Defenses
10:10 - Asymmetric Edge: Partners Fuel Ukraine Against Russia
12:08 - Historical Blindspot: Putin Replicates Russia's Fatal Collapse
LogDog75
(1,485 posts)One of the book series I love is from Issac Asimov. In his Foundation novels, one of the stories in the First Foundation concerned how their city, Terminus, was able to ward off attacks by the local stronger, hostile outer worlds. What Terminus did was to provide goods to the outer worlds and when war threatened, Terminus withheld repair parts and as their machines and goods broke down their owners put pressure on their governments to end the war.
Ukraine is doing something similar but what they're doing is reducing the supply of fuel for cars, trucks, and military vehicles. Russians, like many Western countries, have become dependent upon cars and trucks not only for personal transportation but for the delivery of food, goods, and services. Reducing the amount of fuel causes shortages and frustration for civilians which puts more pressure on Putin and his oligarchs to end the war. These attacks won't end the war but they will pressure the government to bring it to a conclusion.