The Kremlin Succession Fight - Jason Jay Smart

People inside Vladimir Putin’s inner circle are already moving for what comes next. Senior officials in the Kremlin behave as if time is short, with early asset moves and early protection buying.

Self-preservation now drives decisions, with loyal networks secured and money parked early. The motives change first, then the money follows. Inside the Kremlin, the fight is already visible in behavior. Speeches keep going, but behavior changes first. Cash gets moved, protection gets purchased, and loyalty gets tested. Follow the money, because it moves before politics becomes public.

January 2026 oil and gas revenues fell to about $5.1 Billion, the lowest since July 2020, while the Brent-Urals discount widened to around $24 per barrel, cutting cash per barrel. When the payout pool shrinks, elite unity gets more expensive, and forced transfers replace normal deals. Legal pressure turns private wealth into leverage, then leverage becomes obedience.

Alexei Dyumin, Dmitry Patrushev, and Boris Kovalchuk matter because their jobs sit on the levers of funding and enforcement. State Council routing, deputy prime minister portfolios, and audit power decide who gets protected and who gets exposed as the system shifts.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 The Inner Circle Starts Moving
01:12 The Kremlin Succession Fight Has Begun
02:05 Channel Intro and Call to Action
03:05 Elites Stop Trusting Rules, Start Trusting Cash
04:20 Shadow Budgets and Secret Finance Networks
05:35 Oil Revenue Collapse and Shrinking Patronage
07:05 Asset Seizures and Oligarch Redistribution War
08:40 War as Protection for the Elite System
09:55 The Leading Successor Names Emerging
11:05 Kovalchuk and the Budget Weapon
12:00 Why the Military Is Not a Contender
12:55 Oligarch War Chests and Private Armies
13:45 The Silence Before the Shift
14:20 Follow the Money Into the Post Putin Era