Kremlin's Catastrophic Failure - Jason Jay Smart

Russia’s air defense system is failing at the exact moment it is being tested by faster drones, deeper strikes, and wider disruptions across the country’s industrial interior. Over the last two weeks, Ukrainian forces and sabotage teams have repeatedly exposed structural gaps that the Kremlin once insisted did not exist. At the same time, the United States is tightening secondary sanctions that target the energy network funding Moscow’s war. The result is a coordinated pressure system hitting Russia from the air, on the rails, and through global markets.

Ukrainian jet powered drones are now reaching targets nearly 1,450 km from launch, a distance comparable to flying from London to Rome. These strikes are hitting refineries, fuel hubs, and power stations that were supposed to be shielded by layered defenses. Facilities at Ryazan, Saratov, Volgograd, Kuibyshev, Novokuybyshevsk, and Tuapse have all suffered major damage, even though each site sits under radars and missile belts the Kremlin once advertised as among the best in the world. The repeated failures in Oryol, where three strikes in two weeks caused rolling heat and power outages, reveal deeper weaknesses inside Russia’s early warning grid.

New intelligence and reporting from energy analysts show how Washington’s sanctions and Kyiv’s strikes are now operating together. The older G7 oil price cap strategy is effectively over. In its place, the United States is pushing aggressive secondary measures designed to hit any entity doing business with Russia, while Gulf producers increase output and offer discounted barrels to India and Asia. This gives Ukraine the freedom to disable export terminals without driving global prices upward. The strategy is simple: take Russian barrels offline, replace them with Gulf supply, and drain the revenue that funds the war.

Ukraine’s strategy also strikes at the heart of Russia’s logistical depth. Sabotage along the Trans Siberian Railway in Khabarovsk has disrupted the movement of North Korean artillery shells headed to the front. Power grid failures around Veshkayma are forcing operators to reroute electricity through weaker lines, increasing the risk of cascading blackouts across the Volga region. Each disruption limits Russia’s ability to sustain its operations and exposes how thinly stretched its defenses have become.

For NATO and the West, the stakes are strategic. A weaker Russian air defense network reduces Moscow’s deterrent credibility and narrows its ability to escalate. As Ukrainian drones reach new ranges and as sanctions tighten around the energy sector, the war is moving into a phase where the Kremlin can no longer assume its interior is safe. Every successful deep strike accelerates the shift already underway: a Russian state struggling to protect the infrastructure that sustains its war machine and the economy that funds it.

CHAPTERS:

0:00 – Russia’s Air Defenses Are Failing
0:45 – Oryol: A City Left Without Heat
1:40 – Siberia Sabotage Stops the Trans-Siberian Railway
2:25 – Russia’s Refineries Are Burning
3:10 – The System Is Breaking
3:55 – Why Russia’s Shield Is Only a Showpiece
4:40 – How Ukraine Breaks the Network
5:20 – The Oil War Strategy
6:05 – Gulf States Undercut Russian Oil
6:50 – Ukraine Targets Russia’s Export Lifelines
7:35 – Power Grid Strikes in the Volga Region
8:20 – Russia Cannot Repair Its Soviet Era Grid
9:00 – The Ryazan Oil Refinery Hit
9:40 – Logistics Collapse Across Russia
10:15 – The Far East Becomes a Second Front
11:00 – The Truth Russia Cannot Admit
11:40 – Putin Protects Himself First
12:20 – The Strategic Breakdown
13:00 – Winter Will Punish Every Weak Point
13:40 – Final Conclusion
14:10 – Call to Action