Russia's Navy Loses Its Last Safe Harbor - Jason Jay Smart

Ukraine’s naval strategy is dismantling Russia’s ability to operate freely across the Black Sea. Recent long-range drone strikes on Novorossiysk and Tuapse show that Ukraine now projects power far beyond Crimea, reaching deep into what Moscow once considered protected naval territory. These operations expose the widening vulnerabilities inside Russia’s coastal infrastructure.

This analysis breaks down how each hit on fuel depots, electrical nodes, and naval support facilities weakens a fleet already suffering from corruption, slow repairs, and shrinking access to safe harbors. Maritime drones and long-range air drones have pushed the battlespace directly into Russia’s industrial network, forcing Moscow to defend coastlines it never expected to guard.

Repair yards, dry docks, oil terminals, and refineries across multiple regions are now within reach. For a navy dependent on stable fuel flow and predictable maintenance cycles, these disruptions carry long-term strategic consequences. This assessment examines how repeated strikes are degrading Russia’s naval readiness and limiting its ability to reposition ships or launch cruise-missile platforms at scale.

Russia’s submarine infrastructure faces parallel strain. Environmental damage, sanctions, and failing logistics have slowed operations at key bases. When piers warp, docks stall, or fuel convoys fail to arrive, underwater forces lose the ability to sustain patrols. Ukraine’s objective is clear: restrict Russia’s missile-launch capacity from the sea and tighten control over maritime supply routes. Each successful strike leaves Moscow’s fleet more predictable, more cornered, and less capable of projecting power.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Introduction
00:28 Why Ukraine Targets Russia’s Black Sea Infrastructure
01:32 Novorossiysk and Tuapse Strikes Explained
03:05 How Maritime Drones Push the War Into Russia
04:42 Russia’s Coastal Vulnerabilities
06:10 Fuel Depots and Electrical Nodes Under Threat
07:18 Dry Docks, Repair Yards, and Maintenance Collapse
08:46 Impact on Cruise Missile Platforms
09:58 Submarine Infrastructure Under Strain
11:12 Sanctions and Environmental Damage Slow Fleet Operations
12:20 How Ukraine Gains Strategic Control of the Black Sea
13:32 The Future of Russia’s Naval Readiness
14:20 Final Assessment and Takeaways