Foreign Affairs
Related: About this forumBillions lost, nothing gained: The strategic collapse of Iran's nuclear program
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This outcome offers deeper lessons beyond military and technical implications. It underscores the immense danger of provoking powerful enemies with vastly superior military capabilities. It highlights the cost of allowing ideology and rivalry to dictate national policy. Instead of building bridges with its neighbors, Iran pursued influence through proxies, militias, and nuclear threats. Instead of investing in prosperity, innovation, and regional peace, it spent its resources on uranium enrichment and missile development. And now, after decades of effort, what remains is rubble and mourning.
The Iranian leadership must now face a critical decision point. If it attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, it is almost certain to face further Israeli attacks possibly even deeper and more lethal. The infrastructure is gone, the scientific talent has been decimated, and the world is watching with heightened attention. Rebuilding is not just a technical challenge it is a geopolitical dare to those who have already demonstrated their willingness to act decisively. There is no illusion of secrecy anymore. There is no diplomatic cover left. The message is clear: another move toward weaponization, and the next wave of strikes will follow.
In the final assessment, there can be little doubt that Irans nuclear program has been dramatically and significantly damaged. Its foundational elements machines, minds, and material have all been compromised. What took decades to build was dismantled in less than two weeks. The future of Irans nuclear ambitions now lies under heavy surveillance and even heavier consequences. Whether Iran chooses to escalate, rebuild, or pivot to diplomacy will determine not only the fate of its nuclear program, but potentially the future of the region.

Eugene
(65,820 posts)https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/new-us-assessment-finds-american-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iran-rcna218761
in short: one site destroyed; the other two degraded
Beastly Boy
(13,065 posts)Whatever the degree of the physical damage to Iran's nuclear program may be, it is the preponderance of strategic regional failures in addition to decades-long commitment of resources that went to waste in a matter of days, and the consequent loss of face for the regime that is likely to serve as a future deterrent to Iran's commitment to it.
What Iran knows now that they didn't know before is that the details of their nuclear program are not as well-hidden as they thought and their resources are not as protected as they thought. And the price they may have to pay for continuing with it may be catastrophic to the regime.
In hindsight, the political consequences of Iran reviving their program is likely to far outweigh the incentives to rebuild it.