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Beastly Boy

(13,065 posts)
Thu Jul 17, 2025, 03:33 PM Thursday

Billions lost, nothing gained: The strategic collapse of Iran's nuclear program

Iran’s nuclear infrastructure – the physical sites, centrifuge arrays, underground bunkers, laboratories, and research facilities – has been systematically crippled. These were not minor tactical strikes but a calculated, technologically sophisticated campaign designed to render key facilities inoperable for the foreseeable future. The Isfahan Nuclear Technology Research Center, long considered a linchpin in Iran’s uranium enrichment chain, was among the most severely hit. Satellite images reveal scorched tunnel entrances, collapsed roof structures, and targeted penetrations deep underground. Experts who have reviewed the aftermath suggest that centrifuge production lines, command control systems, and clean room laboratories have been wiped out or rendered unusable. In effect, what took decades to build – with precision engineering, international procurement efforts, and highly trained scientific teams – was largely eliminated in under two weeks. It is not merely a symbolic setback; it is a material and operational catastrophe for the program.

--snip--

This outcome offers deeper lessons beyond military and technical implications. It underscores the immense danger of provoking powerful enemies with vastly superior military capabilities. It highlights the cost of allowing ideology and rivalry to dictate national policy. Instead of building bridges with its neighbors, Iran pursued influence through proxies, militias, and nuclear threats. Instead of investing in prosperity, innovation, and regional peace, it spent its resources on uranium enrichment and missile development. And now, after decades of effort, what remains is rubble and mourning.

The Iranian leadership must now face a critical decision point. If it attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, it is almost certain to face further Israeli attacks – possibly even deeper and more lethal. The infrastructure is gone, the scientific talent has been decimated, and the world is watching with heightened attention. Rebuilding is not just a technical challenge – it is a geopolitical dare to those who have already demonstrated their willingness to act decisively. There is no illusion of secrecy anymore. There is no diplomatic cover left. The message is clear: another move toward weaponization, and the next wave of strikes will follow.

In the final assessment, there can be little doubt that Iran’s nuclear program has been dramatically and significantly damaged. Its foundational elements – machines, minds, and material – have all been compromised. What took decades to build was dismantled in less than two weeks. The future of Iran’s nuclear ambitions now lies under heavy surveillance and even heavier consequences. Whether Iran chooses to escalate, rebuild, or pivot to diplomacy will determine not only the fate of its nuclear program, but potentially the future of the region.
https://english.alarabiya.net/views/2025/07/16/billions-lost-nothing-gained-the-strategic-collapse-of-iran-s-nuclear-program

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Billions lost, nothing gained: The strategic collapse of Iran's nuclear program (Original Post) Beastly Boy Thursday OP
American insiders apparently have a different assessment. Eugene Thursday #1
"If Iran wants it to". The OP comes down to an assessment that Iran wouldn't want it to. Beastly Boy Thursday #2

Eugene

(65,820 posts)
1. American insiders apparently have a different assessment.
Thu Jul 17, 2025, 03:48 PM
Thursday
[link:|New U.S. assessment finds American strikes destroyed only one of three Iranian nuclear sites]

WASHINGTON — One of the three nuclear enrichment sites in Iran struck by the United States last month was mostly destroyed, setting work there back significantly. But the two others were not as badly damaged and may have been degraded only to a point where nuclear enrichment could resume in the next several months if Iran wants it to, according to a recent U.S. assessment of the destruction caused by the military operation, five current and former U.S. officials familiar with the assessment told NBC News.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/new-us-assessment-finds-american-strikes-destroyed-only-one-three-iran-rcna218761

in short: one site destroyed; the other two degraded

Beastly Boy

(13,065 posts)
2. "If Iran wants it to". The OP comes down to an assessment that Iran wouldn't want it to.
Thu Jul 17, 2025, 04:33 PM
Thursday

Whatever the degree of the physical damage to Iran's nuclear program may be, it is the preponderance of strategic regional failures in addition to decades-long commitment of resources that went to waste in a matter of days, and the consequent loss of face for the regime that is likely to serve as a future deterrent to Iran's commitment to it.

What Iran knows now that they didn't know before is that the details of their nuclear program are not as well-hidden as they thought and their resources are not as protected as they thought. And the price they may have to pay for continuing with it may be catastrophic to the regime.

In hindsight, the political consequences of Iran reviving their program is likely to far outweigh the incentives to rebuild it.

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