2026 Isn't 1973, But Shitstain Gutting CAFE/GHG Rules Means This Oil Shock Will Still Drag US Economy

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But the very policies that slashed U.S. oil dependence have been under total assault by the Trump administration. Last month, the Environmental Protection Agency both repealed its vehicle emissions standards and also relinquished its authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from automobiles. The repeal came on the heels of Trump’s allies in Congress ending enforcement of yet another landmark regulation that increased fuel efficiency.

The arguments that the Trump administration made to justify these rollbacks are already being undermined by consequences of the president’s own actions in the Middle East. To defend the repeals, Trump officials downplayed the consumer benefits of fuel efficiency, assuming gasoline prices will hover around $3 per gallon for the next three decades. That was never guaranteed, and it almost certainly depends on avoiding the kinds of geopolitical conflict that the president just set in motion. The administration has promised that its new standards will save consumers $1.3 trillion on their vehicle payments. In a world of high oil prices, it could put them deep in the red.

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Even before the war on Iran, the Trump administration’s own analysis found that the repeal would cost consumers money overall. The EPA’s “regulatory impact analysis” assumed that rolling back tailpipe rules would save automakers around $1.3 trillion in manufacturing costs, which they would pass on to consumers, lowering the sticker price of cars. What Trump did not say, but was buried in an analysis by his own EPA, is that the repeal would increase fuel and repair costs by $1.5 trillion between now and 2055, more than wiping out the potential sticker price benefits. Less-efficient gas cars might be cheaper to buy under the Trump plan, in other words, but they require drivers to pay for more maintenance and spend much more money on fuel.

The war only exacerbates this disparity. The Trump administration’s estimate of fuel costs assumed that oil prices remain around $80 per barrel and that gasoline hovers at around $3 a gallon through 2055. Over the past week, the benchmark oil price soared to more than $100 a barrel, and some analysts fear that it could rise as high as $200 in the coming weeks, forcing consumers to spend millions of dollars more on gasoline. Because the EPA’s assessment of the rule extends over a 30-year timeline, a short-term spike won’t radically change the balance of costs and benefits. But the surge in oil prices caused by the conflict does highlight that even consumers who “save” on cheaper gas cars are vulnerable to price shocks.

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https://grist.org/regulation/trump-iran-war-gas-prices/