Indonesia Fettered To Broken, Coal-Rich Development; So, As Bali Floods Showed, "We Can No Longer Predict The Seasons"

A couple of months ago Bali experienced its worst floods in more than a decade. They came at the peak of the dry season. Instead of the empty wells farmers faced last year, this time their crops were washed away; roads turned into brown, swirling rivers; houses collapsed in the torrents; and 17 people were killed.

Indonesia, the world’s fourth-most populous country, faces a paradox. Sometimes described as a sleeping giant, it is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations, but most people do not realise it is also the sixth-largest greenhouse-gas emitter. Indonesia has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades, at an average of 5% a year since 1997. But this progress has been powered by carbon-intensive resources at a steep cost to the environment. Deforestation, peatland drainage and the extraction and burning of coal have powered Indonesia’s development model, reshaping landscapes through timber, pulp and mineral excavation and palm-oil booms.

First must come coal. But although there is a moratorium on new coal plants “on paper”, Putra Adhiguna, the south-east Asia director at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said a loophole allowed new “captive” plants (power plants owned by single industrial users) to power nickel smelters and industrial projects. Research shows captive-power capacity in Indonesia has more than doubled over five years, reaching 22.9GW in 2024 – more than 80% of which is from coal-fired plants and largely outside state oversight.

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How committed is the country to change? In September, the government released its second nationally determined contribution, targeting a 31.89% emissions cut unconditionally – or 43.2% with foreign support – by 2030, which goes 8-17.5% deeper than before. The plan is heavily reliant on land-use change, including restoring 2m hectares (5m acres) of peatlands, rehabilitating 8.3m hectares (20.5m acres) of degraded land and increasing renewables to 19-23% of the power mix. However, to meet those targets, Indonesia says it will need at least US$470bn (£360bn) in investment by 2030. Indonesian environmentalists have criticised the plan as not ambitious enough, while others argue execution will be the real test. Adhiguna said Indonesia might say it wanted to join the global shift to clean energy, but “policies and investments continue to lock the country into fossil-fuel dependency for decades to come”.

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/20/indonesia-coal-mindset-climate-crisis-cop30