At Current CO2 Output, NJ Facing Between 2.2 And 3.8 Feet Of Sea-Level Rise By 2100; W. Ice Sheet Loss, 4.5 Feet

New Jersey is likely to see between 2.2 and 3.8 feet of sea-level rise by 2100 if the current level of global carbon emissions continue, but seas could rise by as much as 4.5 feet if ice-sheet melt accelerates, the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center at Rutgers University said on Tuesday. In the third report since 2016 by the center’s Science and Technical Advisory Panel, scientists at Rutgers and beyond said human-caused climate change is accelerating sea-level rise in New Jersey, and flood hazards are “rapidly increasing” along the state’s coast, as well as in communities near tidal rivers, marshes and wetlands.

The 155-page document, commissioned by the state’s Department of Environmental Protection, and inviting input from 144 scientists, set out to identify, evaluate and summarize the most recent science on sea-level rise and changing coastal storms, but avoided any policy prescriptions that might protect the densely populated and low-lying northeastern U.S. state.

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The last report by the Science and Technical Advisory Panel in 2019 predicted that an intermediate emissions scenario would likely lead to sea-level rise of 2 feet by 2100—0.2 feet lower than in the new report. Other updates include fresh emissions scenarios, detailed forecasts for sea-level rise rates, flooding frequencies for multiple locations and a summary of the impacts of sea-level rise and coastal storms.

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Robert Kopp, a Rutgers climate scientist who led the study, said the current level of emissions matches an “intermediate” scenario, under which the New Jersey sea level at Atlantic City would rise between 2.2 and 3.8 feet by the end of the century, excluding the possible effects of ice-sheet loss in Greenland and Antarctica, a phenomenon that isn’t yet well understood. If ice loss is included, seas are likely to rise by 4.5 feet, the study found. “Current emissions that would be consistent with our intermediate emissions scenario get you to around 2.7 degrees [Celsius] by the end of the century,” said Kopp, a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, during a webinar to launch the report.

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https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112025/new-jersey-sea-level-rise-coastal-flooding/