Who Controls GHG Output? Oil Majors. Who Owns The Biggest Oil Majors? Authoritarian Countires (KSA, Russia, China)

EDIT

Protesting to urge climate action in countries where democracy is under threat is at best perilous, and can be fatal. In Georgia, where a fledgling democracy has taken a turn towards ultra-conservatism under Russia’s influence, Nugzar Kokhreidze, the co-founder of the Dialogue of Generations group describes the reality of activism: “Some have already left the country. Others keep fighting, but without funding and under constant fear of arrest or repression. This severely limits the space for activism and narrows the possibilities for action.” In many of these countries, fossil fuels represent a super-powered economic interest. In Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, they literally fuel the entire economy, and the erasure of protest means there is no counterbalance. “In autocracies that are deeply committed to fossil fuel development as part of their economic models, there is no real internal resistance to that,” said Mittiga.

Bledsoe points to Russia, where leaks from oil and gas production are some of the worst in the world, and the government has refused to take any action to reduce them even though it could be profitable to do so. “They have insanely high fugitive methane emissions from their hydrocarbon production, and they have very little incentive to prevent it,” he said. Much depends on the economic situation of the country involved, adds Stern. “Russia and Saudi Arabia are best understood in taking their position as people with direct vested interests, rather than necessarily to do with democracy or autocracy,” he said. “We have to, as political economists, understand vested interests.”

A further issue might be the corrupting effect that authoritarian hierarchy has on information flows. Shiran Victoria Shen, a senior research scholar at Stanford University, says, for example, that autocracies may plan to put positive environmental strategies in place, but “they often struggle with implementation due to information asymmetries – leaders may not always receive accurate reports from local enforcers and often lack alternative channels to verify information, making it harder to ensure compliance”.

What about pressure from outside? Transparency, or the lack of it, is perhaps the most important issue. In 2016, for example, just after the Paris agreement had been signed, analysts said China’s emissions may have peaked, but it was a false hope. Despite forecasts of a plunge in coal use, China’s leadership took a decisive but covert turn back towards fossil fuels. The government had appeared ready to cancel coal contracts, but satellite images revealed coal-fired power stations being built. The country’s coal sector roared back to life, and in every year since, apart from a slight decrease in 2022, emissions have increased.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/18/climate-crisis-fossil-fuels-autocracies-authoritorian-countries