DAVID WASSERMAN 11:03 PM

Beware The Order Of California Returns
As polls close and we start getting results in the Golden State, remember that it’s wise not to get carried away by the very first numbers you see. According to top watchers in California, counties will generally report votes in the following order: 1) early mailed-in absentee votes 2) election day votes and 3) late mailed-in absentee votes.

According to Political Data’s Paul Mitchell, 69 percent of the 2.7 million early absentee votes mailed in for all primary races were from voters over 55 years old. That likely means the first batches of votes reported will be Clinton’s best. The next batches — the Election Day votes — could be Sanders’s best, and the late absentees could be somewhere in between.

So, don’t be surprised if we see the margin see-saw quite a bit over the course of the night. My hunch is that Clinton will prevail, but if it’s a close finish, remember that late absentees could take a long time to count.

fivethirtyeight.com