It might be that Poilievre would rather lose than change — that he sees himself more as Barry Goldwater than Ronald Reagan, the pure, doomed warrior who will pave the way for another’s victory down the road. It could also be that his team believes they still have time knock Carney down with a few more weeks of attacks and the Liberal party’s own gaffes.

Put simply, I’m not sure Poilievre has anything to pivot to. He can seem so artificial when he talks — with his quacking voice and his endless slogans. But I don’t think he is artificial. I just don’t think there’s anything else there. The affected persona Canadians have seen on the campaign trail isn’t just who he is, it’s all he is. He doesn’t have another side to show.

So, if Poilievre can’t close the deal now, against a rank rookie politician in Mark Carney, it won’t be because of Trump — not entirely, or even especially. It will be because too many Canadians looked at him — the real him, the one he’s been showing off in all his rallies — and decided “That guy’s not for me.”

He destroyed Justin Trudeau. He eviscerated Jagmeet Singh. He should have walked to victory. Instead, he seems to be grinning his way, every day, closer and closer to defeat.