Bombing Iran, Trump gambles on force over diplomacy

Washington (AFP) – For nearly a half-century the United States has squabbled with Iran's Islamic Republic but the conflict has largely been left in the shadows, with US policymakers believing, often reluctantly, that diplomacy was preferable.

Issued on: 22/06/2025

With President Donald Trump's order of strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, the United States -- like Israel, which encouraged him -- has brought the conflict into the open, and the consequences may not be clear for some time to come.

"We will only know if it succeeded if we can get through the next three to five years without the Iranian regime acquiring nuclear weapons, which they now have compelling reasons to want," said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst and supporter of the 2003 Iraq war who is now vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute.

US intelligence had not concluded that Iran was building a nuclear bomb, with Tehran's sensitive atomic work largely seen as a means of leverage, and Iran can be presumed to have taken precautions in anticipation of strikes.

Trita Parsi, an outspoken critic of military action, said Trump "has now made it more likely that Iran will be a nuclear weapons state in the next five to 10 years."
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250622-bombing-iran-trump-gambles-on-force-over-diplomacy


Trita Parsi
@tparsi
Rest assured: Trump likely allowed Israel to drag the US into a long war, even though its intensity may vary.

There is no evidence yet that the Iranian nuclear program has been entirely destroyed. No signs yet of leaking radiation from Fordo, which suggests that the Iranians had already removed their uranium stockpile (which they said they had done). As a result, the program has at best been set back, but certainly not destroyed, while dramatically increasing Tehran's determination to achieve nuclear deterrence.

This does not render a scenario in which the Iranians respond to yesterday's attack with strikes against emptied American bases in the region (like in 2020) unlikely, but it renders it unlikely to be stable.

Meaning, even if Trump wants to call it quits after a more or less symbolic Iranian retaliation, the Israelis will pressure him to continue to bomb Iran because the nuclear program actually hasn't been destroyed.

And even if it gets destroyed, they will pressure him to go after Iran's missile program. And then Iran's conventional military forces, and so forth. And we have seen that Trump is, at the end of the day, quite vulnerable to Israeli pressure.

He is capable of saying no to the Israelis - unlike Biden - but he has not shown an impressive capacity to sustain a no to the Israelis.

As a result, while Trump may have genuinely envisioned a one-and-done, Israel appears to have succeeded in trapping him in a long, if not a forever, war.
1:41 PM · Jun 22, 2025
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