Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find

Source: New York Times

Control of the Senate Is Up for Grabs, Times/Siena Polls Find

Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas as they try to maintain their majority. Democrats are competitive in all six states -- but not leading in enough to take the chamber.

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Based on New York Times/Siena polls of 593 voters in Alaska, 600 voters in Iowa, 601 voters in North Carolina, 601 voters in Ohio and 656 voters in Texas and on a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of 608 voters in Maine. Edison Wu/The New York Times

By Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik and Camille Baker
July 1, 2026, 5:03 a.m. ET

Democrats face an uphill battle to win control of the Senate but have pulled within striking distance of enough Republican-held seats to put the majority in play this fall, according to new New York Times/Siena polls in six Senate battleground states. ... Republicans are hampered by the unpopularity of President Trump and his diminished standing on the economy, while most of the Democratic candidates are so far running ahead of their party's own struggling brand, the polls show.

Winning the Senate remains a stiff challenge for Democrats. Republicans hold 53 seats, meaning that Democrats would need to flip at least four seats while defending all of their own vulnerable ones. ... The Times/Siena polls looked at the six states that are considered to be the Democratic Party's best shots at flipping Republican-held seats: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. The surveys found that while all six states are close enough to be competitive, if the election were held today Republicans would be favored in enough states to keep control of the Senate.

But the new polls suggest that Democrats have a path. ... Mr. Trump carried five of the states in 2024, and if all six states were considered together he won them by an average of eight percentage points. In the polls, the average of the Senate races in those six states was a tie, with 47 percent for both Republicans and Democrats. The shift shows how far the political environment has tilted in the Democrats' direction ahead of the midterm elections.

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Voters across all six battlegrounds were thoroughly frustrated by rising prices -- and many blamed Mr. Trump. Only 36 percent of voters approved of his handling of cost-of-living issues, including an abysmal 24 percent among independent voters.

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Shane Goldmacher is a Times national political correspondent.
https://www.nytimes.com/by/shane-goldmacher

Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results.
https://www.nytimes.com/by/shane-goldmacher

Camille Baker is a Times reporter covering New York City and its surrounding areas.
https://www.nytimes.com/by/camille-baker

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/01/us/politics/polls-senate-control.html