Exclusive: US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, sources say

Source: Reuters

May 4, 2026 4:36 PM EDT Updated 5 hours ago


WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would ​need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar ‌with the matter.

The assessments of Tehran's nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that U.S. President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb. The latest U.S. and Israeli attacks that began on February 28 have focused on conventional military targets, but Israel has hit a number of significant nuclear facilities. The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran's nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran's remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU.

The war has stalled since the U.S. and Iran agreed an April 7 ​truce to pursue peace. Tensions remain high as both sides appear deeply divided, and as Iran has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking some 20% of world oil supplies and igniting a global energy crisis. Secretary ​of Defense Pete Hegseth has said publicly that the U.S. aims to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon via ongoing negotiations with Tehran.

U.S. intelligence agencies had concluded prior ⁠to June's 12-day war that Iran likely could produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in around three to six months, said two of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss U.S. intelligence. Following the June ​strikes by the U.S. that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, U.S. intelligence estimates pushed that timeline back to about nine months to a year, said the two sources and a person familiar with the assessments.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-intelligence-indicates-limited-new-damage-irans-nuclear-program-sources-say-2026-05-04/