Core inflation rate hit 3.2% in March; GDP grew 2% in first quarter; jobless claims lowest since 1969
Source: CNBC
Published Thu, Apr 30 2026 8:34 AM EDT Updated 7 Min Ago
Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a new level of challenges for the Federal Reserve, according to a batch of reports Thursday that showed economic growth slower than expected and a generational low in layoffs.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The readings matched the Dow Jones consensus estimates. Core inflation hit its highest level since November 2023.
Including the volatile gas and groceries components saw higher readings, with the monthly gain at 0.7% and the annual rate hitting 3.5%, also in line with forecasts.
In other economic news Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 but lower than the 2.2% estimate. The modest growth rate came despite a seeming surge in spending on artificial intelligence and what should have been a boost from the end of last year’s government shutdown.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/pce-inflation-rate-march-2026.html
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The U.S. economy grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1.
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8:30 AM · Apr 30, 2026
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026
Article updated.
Previous article/headline
Published Thu, Apr 30 2026 8:34 AM EDT Updated 7 Min Ago
Consumers faced escalating prices in March as the Iran war sent oil soaring and created a new level of challenges for the Federal Reserve.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy, accelerated a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The readings matched the Dow Jones consensus estimates.
Including the volatile gas and groceries components saw higher readings, with the monthly gain at 0.7% and the annual rate hitting 3.5%, also in line with forecasts.
In other economic news Thursday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product grew at a 2% seasonally adjusted annualized pace in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 but lower than the 2.2% estimate.
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Original article -
The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise to 3.2% in March, according to the Dow Jones consensus.
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= new reply since forum marked as read
Horizontal red lines drawn at the Fed's 2% target
PCE March +0.7%;; 12 months: 3.5%
CORE PCE: +0.3%;; 12 months: 3.2%,
4/30/26
SOURCE URLS: 4/30/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-04/pi0326.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE
Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED, over the past month, the past 3 months, and the past 12 months
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
8.2% 5.6% 3.5% Regular PCE (includes food & energy)
3.6% 3.3% 3.2% Core PCE (does not have food nor energy
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target
REGULAR "ALL ITEMS" PCE
CORE PCE (Does Not Include Food Nor Energy)
(These are calculated using the actual index values, as are my graphs)
As usual, I prefer to present annualized figures so they can be compared to the Fed's target and to different-length time periods
The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation.
Nobody feels better about the economy when the price of gas goes up because they don't get anything for it--there is no value added; only money taken out of their normal budget. And holy cow that is quite a number....
Healthcare is much the same: the costs rise but the coverage either stays the same or gets worse. Some of that may also be from increasing deductibles placing more of the healthcare burden on individuals and not insurers.
Financial services and insurance likely means the servicing of debt on this chart. That's another thing that nobody feels adds value.
This chart should be a flashing red light for all elected officials. Consumers that live in the real world will not be feeling good about this economy any time soon....
