The U.S. will 'absolutely' have a recession in 2025 if high tariffs stay, Apollo's Slok says

Source: NBC News/CNBC

April 21, 2025, 3:48 PM EDT


Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, is certain the U.S. will fall into a recession this year if tariffs stay where they are.

“It’s all conditioned on tariffs staying in place at these levels, and if they stay at these levels, we will absolutely have a recession in 2025,” Slok told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Monday.

If the high tariffs that were put in place earlier this month remain in effect, odds of a two-quarter contraction in economic output stand at 90%, with gross domestic product dropping by 4 percentage points, according to the private equity firm’s economist. President Donald Trump on April 9 granted a 90-day reprieve for many tariffs, while hiking those on China to 145%.

Central to Slok’s recession forecast are the China tariffs, which he contends are especially damaging for small businesses that are less likely to hold sufficient cash on hand to pay the higher tax on imported goods. “They basically do not have money and cash to pay 145% extra,” Slok said. “So, we will have bankruptcies of retailers of very significant magnitudes if this is allowed to continue.”

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/us-will-absolutely-recession-2025-high-tariffs-stay-apollos-slok-says-rcna202213