Two weeks ago, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) put out a poll showing him leading the July 21 Democratic primary in Arizona’s Fourth Congressional District, located in and around Phoenix, by 33 points, while carrying a massive 70 percent favorability rating. Normally, incumbents with that kind of lead wouldn’t bother putting a poll like that out; we have to surmise it was meant to either calm supporters or scare off opponents from investing money in his opponent’s campaign.

Stanton’s supporters were apparently not calmed. A week after the poll release, an affiliate of Leading the Future, one of the main electoral PACs funded by the artificial intelligence industry, sunk $227,000 into television and streaming advertising and text messaging on Stanton’s behalf. The outside expenditure isn’t enormous, but it is curious: Why are AI oligarchs defending an incumbent who is blowing out his opponent?

Maybe it’s because Stanton’s lead isn’t so secure. A more recent survey taken last week by A Fight Worth Having, a backer of his opponent, democratic socialist Kai Newkirk, shows the race narrowing to single digits. Stanton leads Newkirk 46-38, but among those who have yet to vote, about half the electorate, Newkirk leads 41-30 with 17 percent undecided. If the undecideds break for Newkirk, another Democratic incumbent could fall in what has already been a historic primary season.

Newkirk, a longtime activist and organizer, only got into the race four months ago, inspired by a deepening sense of outrage at the inadequacy of Stanton’s responses to Donald Trump’s extremism and the genocide in Gaza. As co-chair of the Arizona Democratic Party’s Progressive Council, Newkirk said they had tried to push Stanton on Gaza, including by sending a delegation to his office. But Stanton, despite making a conditional call for a cease-fire, continued to vote for military aid to Israel without conditions, voted to sanction the International Criminal Court for its charges against Israeli leaders, and criticized Joe Biden for briefly stopping the shipment of 2,000-pound bombs.