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BootinUp

(51,846 posts)
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 10:07 PM 21 hrs ago

Suddenly Hormuz is less crucial... Paul Krugman

Is Russia burning?

Are we back at war with Iran? Did the war ever stop? The US is, once again, bombing Iran while Iranian drones strike shipping. Iran, giddy with its success in defying America, is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, while Donald Trump is saying no, he owns the Strait and will collect 20 percent tolls.

Folks, this is bad. U.S. national security policy is now entirely in the service of one man’s vanity. We got into this mess because Trump thought he could win an easy victory that would let him strut around feeling powerful. Now we can’t get out because he won’t admit that his war has been a humiliating failure.

The good news is that Trump’s temper tantrum will probably do less economic damage than one might have expected — because the cease-fire that is apparently over wasn’t doing as much good as one might have expected. The fact is that there is now a disconnect between events in the Strait of Hormuz and the energy prices that matter. This disconnect is coming from a surprising place, another war that was supposed to yield a quick, easy victory but didn’t: Vladimir Putin’s attempt to conquer Ukraine.

To see what I’m talking about, start with a question: Why was oil so cheap just before this latest confrontation?

Continued https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/suddenly-hormuz-is-less-crucial-than

14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Suddenly Hormuz is less crucial... Paul Krugman (Original Post) BootinUp 21 hrs ago OP
wti crude futures are at dweller 21 hrs ago #1
And our reserves are on empty. multigraincracker 21 hrs ago #2
I keep hearing that but it never gets there. dem4decades 21 hrs ago #3
If things continue on the current path, with refining capacity significantly reduced Fiendish Thingy 20 hrs ago #7
Just in time dweller 20 hrs ago #8
Yup Fiendish Thingy 19 hrs ago #10
Iran has vowed revenge. multigraincracker 21 hrs ago #4
Good advice for so many reasons. tanyev 20 hrs ago #9
When you read something..... MyOwnPeace 20 hrs ago #5
That's the trouble with TACO Tuesdays Fiendish Thingy 20 hrs ago #6
I'd like to go back to the gas lines of the 70s. House of Roberts 19 hrs ago #11
I remember as a a little kid, 76 now, multigraincracker 11 hrs ago #12
The lowest I recall seeing here in Alabama, House of Roberts 8 hrs ago #14
"We got into this mess because Trump thought he could win an easy victory.." OldBaldy1701E 11 hrs ago #13

dweller

(29,113 posts)
1. wti crude futures are at
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 10:12 PM
21 hrs ago

$79.44 up from ~$68 less than 2 weeks ago

$5/gal here we come

😐



✌🏻

Fiendish Thingy

(24,826 posts)
7. If things continue on the current path, with refining capacity significantly reduced
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 10:54 PM
20 hrs ago

By fall we could see $7-8 gallon, and rationing.

MyOwnPeace

(17,714 posts)
5. When you read something.....
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 10:34 PM
20 hrs ago

that was written by someone that actually knows what they’re talking about, doesn’t that make you wish you had someone “in charge” that knew how to get those people to help run our country?

“I’LL HIRE ONLY THE BEST….”

Fiendish Thingy

(24,826 posts)
6. That's the trouble with TACO Tuesdays
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 10:53 PM
20 hrs ago

Hot takes get out of date real fast.

I’m guessing the rest of Krugman’s column talks about the destruction of most of Russia’s refineries, dropping worldwide refining capacity by up to 20%.

It’s a BFD, especially since reserves are already dangerously low.

If you haven’t filled your tank, now would be the time.

If we see a return to the rationing and gas lines of the 70’s, there’s a good chance Dems will get a supermajority in the house, and will retake the senate easily.

House of Roberts

(6,774 posts)
11. I'd like to go back to the gas lines of the 70s.
Tue Jul 14, 2026, 11:53 PM
19 hrs ago

I was 17, and my parents paid me to go sit in gas lines with each car, odd tags on odd numbered days, even tags on even numbered days. You could only get ten gallons per trip, and I had the perfect station to use. It was on the downhill side of a hill, and you could coast down the shoulder, without having to crank the engine when the line moved. I'd sit there with a cooler full of cokes and play the radio, get my ten gallons, and come back the next day with the other car.

multigraincracker

(38,484 posts)
12. I remember as a a little kid, 76 now,
Wed Jul 15, 2026, 07:50 AM
11 hrs ago

when there was a price war in Texas, and gas got down to 5 cents a gallon.

House of Roberts

(6,774 posts)
14. The lowest I recall seeing here in Alabama,
Wed Jul 15, 2026, 10:53 AM
8 hrs ago

was on Sand Mountain near Albertville, at 21.9 for regular and 23.9 for premium. That was probably early 60s when I was a little kid.

OldBaldy1701E

(11,927 posts)
13. "We got into this mess because Trump thought he could win an easy victory.."
Wed Jul 15, 2026, 08:03 AM
11 hrs ago

Well, we got into this mess because some rich people just cannot stop waving their tiny dicks around.

The rest was just further issues that compiled after they started the waving.

The real reason we are in this mess is because we decided that the rich slowly tweaking and corrupting almost every aspect of our society was just not a big deal.

Surprise!

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