Will Republicans vote Democratic in the fall?
Here is an article that states we shouldn't expect much change from Republican voters who disapprove o Trump.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-13-lab-gop-anchors-generic-ballot
You have to scroll past the introduction to get tothe real meat of the article.
Quote.
Laurance wanted me to take the Trump disapprovers who still aren’t voting Democratic and carry at least one Republican “anchor” — a 2024 Trump ballot, Republican party ID or lean, or conservative self-ID — and split them up by which anchors they carry. How does each combination vote on the generic ballot? In other words, don’t just count the anchors — ask which ones actually hold.
I recommend you read the piece linked above to get a better idea of how this works, but basically what we’re doing is looking at the subset of people in our poll who say they disapprove of Trump but aren’t voting Democrat and trying to figure out why — and, importantly, how many of those voters Democrats might actually win.
If you sort voters by Trump approval and generic-ballot vote and then count the GOP anchors in each cell, we find that among disapprovers who are undecided, 40% carry one or more GOP anchors. Among disapprovers who say they’ll vote GOP, 90% have Republican anchors. That’s the group I called “closet Republicans” in my May piece. There are a lot of disapproves who look more like Trump supporters/Republicans than Democratic voters, all else being equal.
Here are the numbers: Voters carrying all three anchors (a Trump ‘24 ballot, Republican in party affiliation, and conservative self-ID) are still voting Republican 76% to 16, so disapproving of Trump barely dents them. Voters who pulled the lever for Trump in ‘24 and call themselves Republicans but not conservatives stay Republican too, at 63% to 26.
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The basic upshot is that we can't expect a lot of movement from Republican voters to the Democratic side for the midterms. Granted it won't take much to swing quite a few races but it can't be counted on. The best bet is to concentrate more on independents with few 'anchors'
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