General Discussion

LetMyPeopleVote

(182,351 posts) Wed May 20, 2026, 10:56 AM Wednesday

Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state

Paxton is a major league asshole with a ton of dirt. Until yesterday, Cornyn was running some very effective attack ads on Paxton. There have been at least two Cornyn ads attacking Paxton for every one Paxton ad. Talarico is a great candidate and we may flip Texas blue

Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state #RawStory
— #TuckFrump (@realtuckfrumper.bsky.social) 2026-05-19T18:44:22.000Z

https://www.rawstory.com/talarico-trump-paxton/

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican Ken Paxton on Tuesday could backfire in the Texas Senate primary race — putting Democrat Rep. James Talarico in the lead for the first time, according to a Kalshi Prediction Market report.

Kalshi has signaled that the president's move could flip the ruby-red Senate seat to blue.

"The Trump endorsement likely carries clear, quantifiable weight in Paxton's chances, as shown by the absurd 40% rise in odds of Paxton's chances to win the nomination," Kalshi reported.

"Likely as a result, traders in the market on the general election for the open Senate seat in Texas have perceived this as good news for James Talarico, who is now favored for the first time ever," according to Kalshi.

If elected, Talarico would be the first Democrat to hold a Senate seat in Texas since 1993.

9 replies

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Highlight:

Trump endorsement makes Dem Senate candidate the favorite in deep red state (Original Post) LetMyPeopleVote Wednesday OP

I really hope so. drray23 Wednesday #1

If Talarico wins it's good news ITAL Wednesday #2

Who knows fujiyamasan Wednesday #5

This makes me smile LetMyPeopleVote Wednesday #3

Please Texas Dems GOTV!!! Cha Wednesday #4

Dems are never the favorite in Texas newdeal2 Wednesday #6

This made me smile LetMyPeopleVote Friday #7

As Republicans seethe over Trump's decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic LetMyPeopleVote 14 hrs ago #8

Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predictit all show the GOP winning that seat DavidDvorkin 10 hrs ago #9

drray23

(8,826 posts)

1. I really hope so.

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2026, 12:03 PM

Wednesday

But I am skeptical. For years now, we are told Texas is about to flip. Beto was also supposed to win..

Somehow the polls are tight but at the end the republicans asshole voters always come out .

ITAL

(1,385 posts)

2. If Talarico wins it's good news

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2026, 12:06 PM

Wednesday

However, I tend to think Paxton will prevail and we'll be kicking ourselves that we only had a fairly normal Republican in the seat and now we'll have a complete whackjob.

fujiyamasan

(2,066 posts)

5. Who knows

Reply to ITAL (Reply #2)

Wed May 20, 2026, 08:35 PM

Wednesday

Paxton is so corrupt, he’ll likely commit some crime or the other. It’s be great if he’s forced to resign after a democratic DOJ takes him down.

LetMyPeopleVote

(182,351 posts)

3. This makes me smile

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2026, 07:41 PM

Wednesday

Cha

(320,793 posts)

4. Please Texas Dems GOTV!!!

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2026, 08:12 PM

Wednesday

There better Not be any cheating going on!

newdeal2

(5,633 posts)

6. Dems are never the favorite in Texas

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2026, 08:39 PM

Wednesday

They will have some dirty tricks up their sleeves. Let's not kid ourselves.

LetMyPeopleVote

(182,351 posts)

7. This made me smile

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2026, 02:54 PM

Friday

LetMyPeopleVote

(182,351 posts)

8. As Republicans seethe over Trump's decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Sun May 24, 2026, 07:21 PM

14 hrs ago

As Republicans seethe over Trump’s decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic operative who knows the state explains what the path to victory now looks like.

Trump Screws Himself So Badly on Texas Race, GOPers Visibly Stunned

As Republicans seethe over Trumpâ€™s decision to elevate the weaker, more extreme Senate candidate in Texas, a Democratic operative who knows the state explains what the path to victory now looks like.
— Jon Cooper (@joncooper-us.bsky.social) 2026-05-20T15:21:55.947Z

https://newrepublic.com/article/210706/trump-screws-badly-tex-race-gopers-visibly-stunned

Donald Trump just endorsed MAGA nutjob Ken Paxton in the Texas GOP primary for Senate, potentially killing off establishment incumbent Senator John Cornyn. As GOP senators absorbed this news, reporters described them as “visibly dismayed” and “stone-faced.” Senator Lisa Murkowski openly declared that Trump has now put the seat “in jeopardy,” asking: “How does that help strengthen the president’s hand when we lose a state like Texas?” Translation: Trump has screwed himself and his party in a big way. This might cost them the seat, and at a minimum it makes it much harder to hold. So is Texas actually gettable for Democrats? We talked to Democratic operative Sawyer Hackett, a veteran of Texas races. He explains why Paxton is much weaker than Cornyn, why a perfect storm of conditions in the state could bring about the unthinkable, what Democrat James Talarico’s path to victory looks like, and what could still go wrong for Democrats.

Here is a transcript of this podcast

trump did not endorse Paxton until Tuesday of last week after early voting had started. A ton of vote by mail ballots had no doubt been already cast. Corynyn had more money than Paxton and had a great deal of good material to work with. Paxton is a major league asshole. Cornyn is still running negative ads on Paxton. This will be fun to watch.

DavidDvorkin

(20,691 posts)

9. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predictit all show the GOP winning that seat

Reply to LetMyPeopleVote (Original post)

Sun May 24, 2026, 11:06 PM

10 hrs ago

The margin has narrowed, but the GOP is still predicted to win, so I wonder what traders the article is referring to.

Perhaps that will change over the next few days.

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