My eyeball poll has Krasnov as having a 35% ceiling.

He probably has an over 50% approval rating in LA

There are 1,023,335 registered Republican voters in Louisiana.

Letlow received 179,876, Fleming 113,428, and Cassidy 99,479 in the Louisiana Republican Senate primary, for a total of 392,783 votes, or 38% of all registered Republican voters in the state.

Taken one step further, only 28.6% (293,304) of registered Republican voters in Louisiana followed Trump's orders and voted against Cassidy, casting their votes for either Letlow or Fleming.

I suspect Trump's approval numbers are closer to 28% than 37%.

Though difficult to assess due to a change in the primary structure (from jungle to closed party in 2026), the turnout drop-off from the prior-off-year primaries is about half the Republican senate vote volume seen in the comparable 2010 and 2014 off-presidential cycles (the ~27% 2026 R primary turnout was ~51% of 2014 and 2010's turnouts*).

We can't infer much from this, though the potential takeaway is positive since it may indicate a lack of wider, non-MAGAt Republican voter participation.

However, let's keep working hard to unify and make this come true in November instead of giving Trump what he needs (a splintered Dem party across single issues-driven coalitions).



*R votes cast volume (rough estimates)
- 2026: 401,118
- 2014: 779,520
- 2010: 785,660

These are the same people. No surprise.

Trump is still above water with Republicans. Throw in that this is Louisiana and that primary voters often are the most dedicated.

If his popularity is still this low in November, the composition of primaries now may mean that at a point the Republicans are polling poorly, they might be picking candidates less likely to win the general election.

I can't wait for the results of tomorrow's Primary Day. Ds are on a full-court press statewide, running everywhere. Rs need to spend where they never had to before to defend prior safe seats. The R candidates put forth in our region for the statehouse are abysmally amateurish-to-clownish, with multiple desperate campaigns for Republican candidates to run as write-ins tomorrow against D incumbents.

This doesn't mean that the seats are flipping easily from red to blue. But just to hold onto their white-knuckle state senate majority and to keep their house minority margin close enough to have any leverage at all, Rs must empty their coffers for a defense as opposed to pushing valuable dollars to expanding their seats in the General Assembly.

The special elections of the past year are positive indicators for Dems. From flipping a historically R senate seat in 2025 to the surprisingly strong coalition formed over just seven weeks for HD-79 (Blair County) to make Rs earn their 15-point victory in a district with a 55-29 R-to-D advantage. And burning billionaire's cash in statewide elections is becoming a hobby for PA Dems, who rallied voters to crush R candidates in the high-stakes 2025 State Supreme Court race.

This isn't meant to paint a rosy picture, there is hard work, bumps and bruises along the way.

It is validation and a boost of energy to efforts when more is needed to finish this leg of the decades-long marathon ahead to rid ourselves of MAGAtism.

November is not the finish line, it is the start.

Do with their majority? Try and appease areas of the state that are hostile to them?

As a PA resident, I appalled at how much state money goes into the deep red parts of this state. Why do folks who support their local fire and police departments have to pay to keep state police in other sections of the state who don’t have local forces? Why is Turnpike money builing new toll roads in Pittsburgh no locals want to use? Why are we finishing the 322 project in Centre County so people can shave off 5 minutes to get to a college football game?

The roads I travel to work haven’t been touched in decades. Potholes damage cars. Street lights stay on all day. My public transit is operating with equipment from the Nixon era. And on and on.

I would love it if Dems played hardball and kept taxes and PA Turnpike money in the communities that generated it. Let the rurals figure out their own spending on their own

a poll of only registered Republicans, who are pro Trump. But registered Republicans, which is about 30% of registered voters. And the winner in that didn't even get 50%.
So it shows a small minority still love Trump.

What's the difference what the perceived % of MAGA voters is if they keep voting in numbers to deliver MAGA candidates to public office?

what it would take to shake that 37% out of their Trump trance!

You have to wonder how ANY sane person can think he is r only capable of running a lemonade stand, let alone our country!

racists or have bought into their narrative. While the squishy middle doesn't see white supremacy as a deal breaker as long as there's peace at the pumpkin farm.

... so now they're giving him the real poll numbers. Maybe they should have done this all along?

Chump is the WORST President of all time, now and forever. His main competition was the first term of Donald Chump. By the time he's done, it will be clear to everyone - including the MAGAs - that he never should have been allowed to run a 2nd time.

So not only has another president fallen to a 37 point approval, but it happened to either Biden or Trump himself during his first term.

What a clickbait headline.

Nothing has changed.

and reaching new unprecedented lows. They are always still right around 37 percent. Not seeing where the big drop is. If they had dropped as much and as often as I've seen reported seems they would be in the teens by now.

Means nothing, nada, zip, means shit…… unless we actually win the house and hopefully make inroads in the Senate.

But all the poll people get excited about 37% and claim its the biggest drop ever.

Bullcrap. I'll get excited when I see a poll claiming 33% or lower.